Res Ipsa wrote:Frankly, the whole incident is confusing. Someone else tried to figure it out, but it just doesn't make sense. https://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/10/17/1943 I think it's McIntyre who introduced the confusion by linking Deming with the e-mail, but it's really unclear.
But, as evidence of fraud, Deming's testimony is extremely weak as far as evidence goes. He testifies about an e-mail he received 10 years before from a major figure in climate science that said something pretty shocking, but he can't remember who and he doesn't have the e-mail. Frankly, I think he's misremembering. There simply isn't any evidence that Mann was involved. And there isn't any evidence that Mann fraudulently removed evidence of the MWP from his hockey stick paper. (Actually, I don't think the first paper in 1998 even covered the period of the MWP, but I'd have to double check.) If there was, you could easily prove the fraud by showing what he did. Not to mention the fact that there are lots of reconstructions now through the relevant time period, and they all look pretty similar. If you like conspiracy theories, the claim that scientists have all conspired to get rid of the MWP certainly sounds attractive, but where's the evidence? So far you've got a 10 year old recollection by a guy who can't remember who it was.
So, according to one interview Deming said he couldn't remember "for sure", but he thinks it WAS Overpeck.
So, since this is the likely case, and the Overpeck email you linked WAS the same year as the apparent email to Deming, I would first point out that the email you linked clearly wasn't sent to Deming, since it says all the people it was sent to, thus, the likelihood is that if it was Overpeck, then it likely was another email that Overpeck sent to Deming but using those famous words instead. Yes, your linked email by Overpeck downplays the other words from Deming's email, but the "theme" is certainly similar, so it's not out of bounds that Overpeck said those words to Deming that Deming claims were said.
As to his memory... In the video, he specifically "quotes" and "unquotes" the statement from the email.
So, it would seem he still had the email at that time of his testimony or had it written in notes or something being that specific about it.
So, doing some research I came upon this:
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/03/11 ... ing-spike/
This is a really good "overview" from beginning to end on how the hockey stick came to be, and how it's been debunked.
You'll note, that not only did Mann eliminate the Medieval Warm Period, his ending spike was also fraudulent.
Be sure to watch the short video, because it shows you the raw data compared to Manns version in which he changes the methodology to make the Warming more extreme then it actually is.
Also, the first post in the comments has a good link with the most latest studies (90 papers, 120 Graphs) which destroy the hockey stick.
https://notrickszone.com/2017/09/28/upd ... wzFgs.dpbs
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2017 ... is-a-myth/
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2017 ... -my-reply/