Trump's survival chances narrow ...

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_Chap
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Trump's survival chances narrow ...

Post by _Chap »

57 percent of voters say they won’t support Trump in 2020

Not looking good. 57% against, 30% for, and 13% don't know. If all the don't know voters go for Trump in 2020, that still only gives him 43% against 57%, behind by 14%.

Let's see ... there are about 160,000,000 registered voters in the US at the moment: see

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time ... 0-580.html

So 14% of that would be about 22 million. Somehow I don't think that even the electoral college could turn that into a win ... of course a poll is only a poll, but it's not nothing.

No wonder Trump is so desperate to keep his base onside: it's really all he's got, so it seems.

With the 2020 presidential election already underway, 57 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote against President Donald Trump, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist.

Another 30 percent of voters said they would cast their ballot to support Trump, and an additional 13 percent said they had no idea who would get their vote.

Although the election is still nearly two years away, the large number of voters who oppose Trump as well as his low approval ratings suggest the president faces a “steep, steep incline” in winning re-election, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

“The president has had his base and not much else,” Miringoff added.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_EAllusion
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Re: Trump's survival chances narrow ...

Post by _EAllusion »

That's a snapshot in time. An incumbent President hasn't lost an election when the economy isn't in recession in an election year and there are no unpopular wars in basically forever. Ford is only counterexample that comes to mind. He wasn't elected. He got into the presidency after both his party's president and vice president were forced from office due to serious malfeasance. And a serious recession had ended the year before the election. He barely lost even though his opponent was fairly popular at the time. Incumbency is a massive advantage in a presidential election unless the public is very unhappy with the general circumstances of the country.

I wouldn't put Trump's odds any lower than 40% at this time. He's remarkably underwater given the fundamentals, but he is also unfathomably bad, so that makes sense. I'd like to see where those numbers are a month before election before even considering the possibility that he's a serious dog in an election.
_EAllusion
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Re: Trump's survival chances narrow ...

Post by _EAllusion »

The flip side of this is that I'd predict Trump to be murdered in any election where the US is in recession in the summer of 2020. Partisanship is pretty high right now, so it probably wouldn't be a Hoover level catastrophe, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was close. The man is fairly unpopular with very strong winds at his back. If those winds go away, he's in so much trouble. I think conventional wisdom is that Trump has a immovable base of support that represents 35-40% of the country. First, Hoover lost his election with 40% of the vote. That's not enough. Second, his base almost certainly is not that big. His real base - people who will support him no matter what - is closer to the 20's. He's going to get Bush at his lowest point numbers if the fundamentals shift against him. I'd bet on it.
_EAllusion
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Re: Trump's survival chances narrow ...

Post by _EAllusion »

Consumer confidence took a nose dive just recently. By God, Trump just might be the exception that proves the rule when it comes to Presidential actions being responsible for recessions.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... confidence
_DoubtingThomas
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Re: Trump's survival chances narrow ...

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

EAllusion wrote:That's a snapshot in time. An incumbent President hasn't lost an election when the economy isn't in recession in an election year and there are no unpopular wars in basically forever. Ford is only counterexample that comes to mind. He wasn't elected. He got into the presidency after both his party's president and vice president were forced from office due to serious malfeasance. And a serious recession had ended the year before the election. He barely lost even though his opponent was fairly popular at the time. Incumbency is a massive advantage in a presidential election unless the public is very unhappy with the general circumstances of the country.

I wouldn't put Trump's odds any lower than 40% at this time. He's remarkably underwater given the fundamentals, but he is also unfathomably bad, so that makes sense. I'd like to see where those numbers are a month before election before even considering the possibility that he's a serious dog in an election.


Trump can afford to lose two of three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to win re-election if he manages to keep all his other 2016 states. The Democrats really need to nominate someone that is going to do well in the northeast and Midwest.
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