The self-correction of science ...

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_Chap
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The self-correction of science ...

Post by _Chap »

In recent years, researchers in psychology have noticed that there are a number of well-known results that fail the 'reproducibility test' - that is, when other researchers have tried to do the same experiments, they have not managed to get the same result as those published.

One reason for that is said to be that journals have a bias towards wanting to publish 'positive' results - that is, reports on experimental testing of a hypothesis that result in the researcher being able to say 'Yay! My idea works out', rather than 'Well, it was an interesting idea, but my experiments showed no evidence that it was correct." Particularly in a field like psychology (It's a bit less likely to happen in more hard-edged sciences like physics) this puts pressure on researchers to find something - anything - in their results that can be said to confirm some idea they may or may not have had before doing the experiment. At best, this kind of publication adds meaningless noise to the field, and at worst it is actually misleading.

So do we say. "Hmm, looks like science is not a reliable way of discovering true things after all"? Nope, because science is a huge and complex social institution that is both self-critical and creatively self-correcting: look at this new idea used by the Royal Society (the world's oldest scientific society):

Registered Reports

A Registered Report is a form of journal article in which methods and proposed analyses are pre-registered and peer-reviewed prior to research being conducted (stage 1). High quality protocols are then provisionally accepted for publication before data collection commences. The format is open to attempts of replication as well as novel studies. Once the study is completed, the author will finish the article including results and discussion sections (stage 2). This will be appraised by the reviewers, and provided necessary conditions are met, publication is virtually guaranteed.

The main benefits of this two-stage approach are:

Once the methods and proposed analyses are provisionally accepted, the journal will commit to publishing the results regardless of the outcome, provided the final study conforms to the initially approved proposal and meets all quality checks. This means that publication bias is reduced as negative results will not prevent publication.
Peer review of the research proposal provides an opportunity for the authors to receive constructive critical feedback that may help them to fine-tune the study design prior to conducting the experiment.
This process can help reduce researcher bias.
This process may enhance the credibility of the work.


Neat: you describe the experiments you plan to do, and what research questions you are trying to answer. If the journal thinks your work is worth doing, the journal agrees to publish your results even if the result is, in effect, 'We did not get any positive results'. You get a publication (important to your career), and other researchers now know that the experiments you tried led to a dead end, so they need to think of something else. And the temptation to select only the 'interesting' results from your study is much diminished - because you have already set on record with a third party how your experiment will be done.

Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction.

Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_DrW
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _DrW »

Chap,

Thank you for posting the information on the Royal Society's Open Science initiative. This is indeed an ingenious approach to reorienting the way academic science does business and one that seems long overdue. One wonders if this approach to publication will eventually be required as a condition of research grant funding. (Perhaps it is already in the UK - its been a long time.)

As to your question regarding such an approach to the development of religion, its hard to imagine how one would structure a analogous process for unfounded belief.
David Hume: "---Mistakes in philosophy are merely ridiculous, those in religion are dangerous."

DrW: "Mistakes in science are learning opportunities and are eventually corrected."
_subgenius
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _subgenius »

Chap wrote:Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction.

Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?

yes, ironically religion effectively does the same thing. Prayer, contemplation, and faith are all methods of self-correction. Reproducible results are manifest by the many shared and similar experiences...and like science, there are acceptable tolerances across results.

And for what it's worth, religion begins with the identification and admission of a problem...a flawed man.

But hey, since you want to mix paradigms, keep it going with another question...like "is truth in science the same as truth in religion?"; or "can there be morality in science?"....
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_SteelHead
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _SteelHead »

subgenius wrote:
Chap wrote:Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction.

Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?

yes, ironically religion effectively does the same thing. Prayer, contemplation, and faith are all methods of self-correction. Reproducible results are manifest by the many shared and similar experiences...and like science, there are acceptable tolerances across results.

And for what it's worth, religion begins with the identification and admission of a problem...a flawed man.

But hey, since you want to mix paradigms, keep it going with another question...like "is truth in science the same as truth in religion?"; or "can there be morality in science?"....

Hogwash. Prayer and revelation are not reproducible. Else there would only be 0-1 religion.
It is better to be a warrior in a garden, than a gardener at war.

Some of us, on the other hand, actually prefer a religion that includes some type of correlation with reality.
~Bill Hamblin
_DrW
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _DrW »

subgenius wrote:
Chap wrote:Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction.

Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?

yes, ironically religion effectively does the same thing. Prayer, contemplation, and faith are all methods of self-correction. Reproducible results are manifest by the many shared and similar experiences...and like science, there are acceptable tolerances across results.

And for what it's worth, religion begins with the identification and admission of a problem...a flawed man.

But hey, since you want to mix paradigms, keep it going with another question...like "is truth in science the same as truth in religion?"; or "can there be morality in science?"....

Sorry subgenius.

Your statement regarding religion's self correction and reproducibility through prayer is absolute nonsense. You could hardly be more wrong.

Self-correction by prayer and contemplation in religion lead to reproducible results such as a soul felt firm and abiding belief that the Earth is flat, or that prayer alone will cure young children with easily treatable but otherwise fatal diseases, causing parents to deny professional medical treatment and resulting in needless painful deaths of children.

Prayer to Allah five times a day allows faithful Muslim fathers to kill their "wayward" daughters for the honor of the family. It allows Mormon parents to disown their young female daughters who violate strict moral standards or, as we recently heard from Lemmie, disown sons because they will not go on missions. One could go on for days and only scratch the surface here.

Subgenius, you are so far off base on your ridiculous clams on this thread that it is hard to know where to begin.

You need to read more about the history of science and less about religious nonsense.
David Hume: "---Mistakes in philosophy are merely ridiculous, those in religion are dangerous."

DrW: "Mistakes in science are learning opportunities and are eventually corrected."
_Chap
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _Chap »

subgenius wrote:
Chap wrote:Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction.

Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?

ironically religion effectively does the same thing. Prayer, contemplation, and faith are all methods of self-correction. Reproducible results are manifest by the many shared and similar experiences...and like science, there are acceptable tolerances across results.

And for what it's worth, religion begins with the identification and admission of a problem...a flawed man.

This is ... embarrassing. I'll leave it at that.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_subgenius
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _subgenius »

DrW wrote:
subgenius wrote:yes, ironically religion effectively does the same thing. Prayer, contemplation, and faith are all methods of self-correction. Reproducible results are manifest by the many shared and similar experiences...and like science, there are acceptable tolerances across results.

And for what it's worth, religion begins with the identification and admission of a problem...a flawed man.

But hey, since you want to mix paradigms, keep it going with another question...like "is truth in science the same as truth in religion?"; or "can there be morality in science?"....

Sorry subgenius.

Your statement regarding religion's self correction and reproducibility through prayer is absolute nonsense. You could hardly be more wrong.

Self-correction by prayer and contemplation in religion lead to reproducible results such as a soul felt firm and abiding belief that the Earth is flat, or that prayer alone will cure young children with easily treatable but otherwise fatal diseases, causing parents to deny professional medical treatment and resulting in needless painful deaths of children.

Prayer to Allah five times a day allows faithful Muslim fathers to kill their "wayward" daughters for the honor of the family. It allows Mormon parents to disown their young female daughters who violate strict moral standards or, as we recently heard from Lemmie, disown sons because they will not go on missions. One could go on for days and only scratch the surface here.

Subgenius, you are so far off base on your ridiculous clams on this thread that it is hard to know where to begin.

You need to read more about the history of science and less about religious nonsense.

What an idiotic rebuttal. The idea that religion is a geographic tool is as absurd as the idea that science is a morality tool. So, your arrogant dismissal is erroneous for its lack of understanding for the distinction been the 2 paradigms. No one is suggesting that religion and science are synonymous, well except the moron writing the OP.

Do you really believe that people have unpredictable, unrepeated experiences when applying religious principles in their life?
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_DrW
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _DrW »

subgenius wrote:
DrW wrote:Sorry subgenius.

Your statement regarding religion's self correction and reproducibility through prayer is absolute nonsense. You could hardly be more wrong.

Self-correction by prayer and contemplation in religion lead to reproducible results such as a soul felt firm and abiding belief that the Earth is flat, or that prayer alone will cure young children with easily treatable but otherwise fatal diseases, causing parents to deny professional medical treatment and resulting in needless painful deaths of children.

Prayer to Allah five times a day allows faithful Muslim fathers to kill their "wayward" daughters for the honor of the family. It allows Mormon parents to disown their young female daughters who violate strict moral standards or, as we recently heard from Lemmie, disown sons because they will not go on missions. One could go on for days and only scratch the surface here.

Subgenius, you are so far off base on your ridiculous clams on this thread that it is hard to know where to begin.

You need to read more about the history of science and less about religious nonsense.

What an idiotic rebuttal. The idea that religion is a geographic tool is as absurd as the idea that science is a morality tool.
So, your arrogant dismissal is erroneous for its lack of understanding for the distinction been the 2 paradigms. No one is suggesting that religion and science are synonymous, well except the moron writing the OP.

Do you really believe that people have unpredictable, unrepeated experiences when applying religious principles in their life?

Absolutely. And I provided a few examples of how earnest prayer and religious contemplation lead directly to unmitigated personal disasters. There are at least as many examples out there of different outcomes to prayer as there have been religions, and that number is conservatively estimated to be in the many thousands.

Nothing left to do here except join with Chap in characterizing your nonsensical, word salad, posts on the subject as, well, embarrassing.
David Hume: "---Mistakes in philosophy are merely ridiculous, those in religion are dangerous."

DrW: "Mistakes in science are learning opportunities and are eventually corrected."
_subgenius
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _subgenius »

DrW wrote:
subgenius wrote:Do you really believe that people have unpredictable, unrepeated experiences when applying religious principles in their life?

Absolutely. And I provided a few examples of how earnest prayer and religious contemplation lead directly to unmitigated personal disasters.

Ahh, anecdotal evidence is not a one way street...and in the context of the OP such evidence is irrelevant is it not? Or is your new position that scientific proof is an absolute condition?...notwithstanding the OP's assertion that science is exalted by its implementation of continuing revelation self-correction. Just so i am clear, in science bias=no truth....but bias in religion=?

DrW wrote: There are at least as many examples out there of different outcomes to prayer as there have been religions, and that number is conservatively estimated to be in the many thousands.

I am not sure what quantity has to do with the assertion of the OP, unless you are speaking to my previously mentioned notion of probability and acceptable tolerances? But the similarity in the OP for the statement - "publishing the results regardless of the outcome, provided the final study conforms to the initially approved proposal and meets all quality checks. This means that publication bias is reduced as negative results will not prevent publication" is lost on you with regards to religion, no?

DrW wrote:Nothing left to do here except join with Chap in characterizing your nonsensical, word salad, posts on the subject as, well, embarrassing.

Well, maybe there is one thing left to do...maybe point out the other more relevant errors in your position - such as while your misguided arrogance surely stems from what I recognize as your wisdom in some particular scientific field, that arrogance exists outside of the scientific paradigm. That, like the OP, your insistence that Truth is an exclusive condition of "science" is the only actual embarrassment here...but alas that is not on topic, let us examine the topic of the OP, sans all the masturbatory patting of science on the back.

Science has dealt with a major problem by admitting it has one, and then creating an ingenious method of self-correction. Can anyone give me an example of religion doing that?

Examples were given and the examples are similar in nature, method and effectiveness as the one touted in the OP as being exclusive to science. Now granted I may have glossed over the finer details but the premise is the same, albeit Religion implemented the methodology first. The OP may well be describing the generation of the Old, New, and continued Testaments (mentioned only as an accent for the rather illogical appeal to authority by the OP about "the oldest scientific society").

basically Chap is going in an absurd circle with a juvenile 'gotcha' question at the center point...an experiment is likely to be more reproducible among peers if the peers all modify the experiment to become more reproducible.

But to make sure I understand you guys correctly, as this theme seems to be pervasive....you guys evaluate science and religion using only scientific methods; dismissing all religious methods; and celebrating that science is more sciencey than religion.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_Gunnar
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Re: The self-correction of science ...

Post by _Gunnar »

DrW wrote:
subgenius wrote:Do you really believe that people have unpredictable, unrepeated experiences when applying religious principles in their life?

Absolutely. And I provided a few examples of how earnest prayer and religious contemplation lead directly to unmitigated personal disasters. There are at least as many examples out there of different outcomes to prayer as there have been religions, and that number is conservatively estimated to be in the many thousands.

Nothing left to do here except join with Chap in characterizing your nonsensical, word salad, posts on the subject as, well, embarrassing.


The very first thread I started on this forum addressed this very subject: The Bottom Line. This was my OP:
Whether anyone likes it or not, the simple, undeniable fact that there are so many mutually contradictory religious belief systems, most (if not all) of which have devout adherents who sincerely claim to have arrived at what they firmly believe to be THE TRUTH via subjective faith in divine revelation, scripture study and prayer, is absolutely incontestable proof of the unreliability of that approach to discerning any kind of truth--whether religious or secular. Even if one these mutually contradictory religions or belief systems really is the "divinely revealed truth" its adherents sincerely believe it to be (which no more than one of them can be, since no two of them completely agree, even on fundamentals), the unreliability of that approach to truth is still solidly established! It will never cease to amaze me that so many, otherwise seemingly literate and competent people can manage to remain oblivious to that reality! It is like staring at the sun at high noon on a cloudless mid-summer day and insisting that it is nighttime!

Consequently, no precept, claim or belief system is more deservedly suspect and more likely to be false than one that can only be justified by claiming divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority!

It is becoming increasingly difficult for me to understand how anyone who is fully rational, studious and honest with oneself can avoid coming to that same conclusion! Believers often try to threateningly challenge doubters by warning against favoring the "precepts of men" over the "Word of God." There are two glaring problems with that response: 1. Once true believers have become convinced or have convinced themselves that they are in possession of God's Word, they almost invariably make themselves oblivious to any distinction between questioning the Word of God and questioning whether their deeply held convictions really are the Word of God. 2. It is very far from established beyond all reasonable doubt that there are any precepts or teachings available to us that are not of men.

Religious leaders are fond of warning us to beware of the "precepts of men." This is actually very good advice, because there are undeniably a great number of people who are either charlatans or are honestly mistaken about what they try to tell or teach others. However, absolutely nothing more clearly demonstrates the truth of that fact than the abundant nonsense and numerous atrocities that we humans have perpetrated on each other in the guise of religion and in the very name of God! In fact, it often seems that the more nonsensical or ridiculous the claim, the more likely it is that some solemn idiot will claim divine authority for it and threaten hell and eternal damnation to anyone who can't or won't believe it. After all, when they know their claims are false and therefore cannot be supported by or are even contradicted by the best available evidence, and they are determined to promote them anyway, what else can they do but claim divine authority for it and that humankind's "finite knowledge" and "fallible intellect" are simply incapable of correctly understanding the evidence without the help of God and his divinely appointed prophet? Consequently there are no precepts we ought to be more wary of than those that can only be supported by an appeal to divine authority!

But surely, one might argue, God is infallible. Unfortunately, this entirely misses the point! While it may be inconceivable that a being worthy of the appellation "God" could be fallible, it is certainly not inconceivable that we humans could be mistaken or dishonest about having received divine inspiration or revelation--or even about there being any such thing. Obviously, that is true of at least the vast majority of the mutually contradictory religious convictions and claims, is it not? There is a glaring dilemma here. If you are going to admit, nay, insist that we humans are all fallible, and therefore need divine guidance, we can't then turn around and claim that any of us can infallibly determine which (if any) of these numerous, mutually contradictory claims are really a product of divine revelation!


It turned out to be a very long thread, and it will never cease to amuse me that the pathetic efforts of subgenius and others to rebut the premise of that OP, if anything, inadvertently did as much or more to demonstrate the validity of that very premise than some of the best arguments of those agreeing with it! Subgenius obviously still has not figured that out, and I am sure he never will!
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.

“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”
― Harlan Ellison
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