Lindzen got his @$$ kicked!

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_Gunnar
_Emeritus
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Re: Lindzen got his @$$ kicked!

Post by _Gunnar »

spotlight wrote:"To begin with, an important distinction needs to be made between prudential and evidential burden of proof (BoP). The prudential BoP is applicable when there are cost asymmetries in arriving at two judgments about whatever matter is under dispute, whereas the evidential burden of proof applies when there are no such cost asymmetries involved.

Consider, for instance, the question of the safety of food additives. If approached as a straightforward scientific question, then the relevant concept is that of evidential BoP: there is no “cost” associated with arriving at the right judgment, other than the symmetric cost in getting a chunk of reality wrong. But if we approach the issue of food additives from the standpoint of its potential consequences for public health, there is a differential cost in getting the wrong answer, so the idea of prudential BoP seems more appropriate.

The (controversial) precautionary principle, which is an application of the prudential burden of proof, states that — if a certain action or policy is suspected to be harmful — the burden falls on those who believe that a new policy or course of action is not harmful. The status quo is perceived as less costly than a potentially dangerous new policy or course of action. In more general terms, the prudential BoP can be applied in situations where the cost of a false positive is significantly different (greater or smaller) from the cost of a false negative.

Examples of prudential BoP where the cost associated with a false negative outweighs that of a false positive include smoke detection alarms, environmental hazards, cancer screening, etc. An example of the opposite case, where false positives are perceived as more costly, include the presumption of innocence in a court of law. This principle in American criminal law clearly skews things in favor of the defendant, but this is done because the risk of a false positive (convicting an innocent) is treated as much less acceptable than the risk of a false negative (exonerating a guilty party)."

https://platofootnote.wordpress.com/201 ... -disputes/


Well stated. If everyone reasoned the same way climate change deniers do, no one would buy health insurance unless they were already ill, and no one would buy fire insurance or smoke detectors or fire extinguishers unless their house were already on fire.
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.

“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”
― Harlan Ellison
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
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Re: Lindzen got his @$$ kicked!

Post by _Res Ipsa »

Water Dog wrote:
spotlight wrote:"There’s a scene from the movie Pearl Harbor that might resonate in terms of the climate debate. The scene depicts US military personnel on the morning of December 7, 1941, before the bombing. Forward radar station operators see hundreds of blips on their screens. One says, “It might be an attack. We have to warn the base.” The commanding officer replies, saying that he needs confirmation before waking the base on Sunday morning. In a few minutes’ time, smoke becomes visible rising over the harbor. Another officer says, “There’s your confirmation.”
That’s the message we need to get out there. The reality is that we have to make decisions about climate change before all the facts are in. We don’t want to get our confirmation as we did at Pearl Harbor."
http://www.rff.org/research/publication ... nversation

The same could be said about quite literally anything. Maybe vaccines are causing autism. I mean we don't know for sure what's causing autism. So, better off safe than sorry, end all vaccines. Maybe an asteroid will strike tomorrow. You simply can't go through life this way. Decisions have to be properly balanced with the level of uncertainty.


Again with the straw man. Because seeing the visible smoke from the Pearl Harbor bombing is just like the odds that the earth is going to be hit by an asteroid.

And, the fact is, we absolutely live our lives this way, if you mean reasonable risk avoidance. We have vaccines precisely because the odds that the vaccines will prevent serious illness, permanent harm, and death are way less than the odds that the vaccine itself will have those results. Let's take, for example, asteroids. What are the odds that you all die in an asteroid impact? Here's one stab at it: https://slate.com/technology/2008/10/de ... orite.html The estimate: 1 in 700,000. The article lists several things with similar odds: dying in a flood, dying in a fireworks accident, being killed by a terrorist. In each of those cases, the odds are only that low because we spend money to reduce them: flood control on rivers, building codes, fireworks regulations, TSA, etc. The argument in the article is that, even given the long odds, they can be substantially reduced by spending little money. And, in fact, we track a whole lot of near earth objects to try and give advance warning if one is headed our way.

Of course, if you deny the science, you've already set the risk to "not worth doing anything about." But if we want to treat the risks from climate change the same way we treat risks of floods, fireworks, terrorist attacks, etc., then we can't shut our eyes to what science tells us about the risks.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_schreech
_Emeritus
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Re: Lindzen got his @$$ kicked!

Post by _schreech »

Gunnar wrote:
schreech wrote:LOL. Its like the Menatalgymnast of science denial.


And he still, apparently, has no clue about how devastatingly he is sabotaging his own credibilty on this issue. The comparison between him and flat-earthers becomes more apt with every post he makes!


No kidding, I was thinking the exact same thing. Its literally like watching a Mormon apologist try to downplay legitimate scientific research to position their chosen beliefs in a less ridiculous light. When you are dealing with blind faith, credibility doesn't seem to be all that important. Dog just believes!!!
"your reasoning that children should be experimented upon to justify a political agenda..is tantamount to the Nazi justification for experimenting on human beings."-SUBgenius on gay parents
"I've stated over and over again on this forum and fully accept that I'm a bigot..." - ldsfaqs
_canpakes
_Emeritus
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Re: Lindzen got his @$$ kicked!

Post by _canpakes »

Water Dog wrote:The same could be said about quite literally anything. Maybe vaccines are causing autism. I mean we don't know for sure what's causing autism. So, better off safe than sorry, end all vaccines. Maybe an asteroid will strike tomorrow. You simply can't go through life this way.

Dog, your analogies are as bad as your 'science'.

It looks like our current overdependencies on certain energy sources may contribute to warming. That means that we can look at changing up our mix of sources. Not that we stop using all energy sources ("end all vaccines").

Water Dog wrote:Decisions have to be properly balanced with the level of uncertainty.

You say this as you hide crouched in the corner, rejecting any type of investigation or action while not even being able to explain your fear of doing so.

So much for whining about 'balance' when you display none at all.
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