How do you forecast for November?

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_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: How do you forecast for November?

Post by _EAllusion »

EAllusion wrote:
EAllusion wrote:I think 538's prediction models are solid and the other forecasters all are roughly aligned with them. Democrats have about as good of a chance of winning the House as Clinton did the presidency on election day. I'll take the odds and assume they eek out a bare majority while winning a near landslide in votes.

There's a not insignificant chance Democrats win a quasi-landslide in historical terms and still lose the House. If that happens, I think the general public will wake up to what's going on there a little more.

For the Senate, I think Democrats are in deep trouble in Florida, Missouri, and North Dakota. They also have toss-up battles in several other states. They're modest favorites to pick up in Arizona and Nevada and have a realistic outside shot in Tennessee and Texas. I'll go ahead and predict they lose two seats overall.

The Senate math is getting extremely distorted due to US population trends and within the lifetime of most of us it's going to start getting way, way beyond anything the Constitution intended where a tiny fraction of the population controls a huge % of the Senate votes. I suspect this election outcome might inject that reality more into the national conversation. The Senate apportionment was a compromise picked at a time when the math was different.

Govenorships I think are a little more favorable to Democrats. I'll predict they pick up 9 seats for a total of 25.

As more information comes in, I'm totally modifying these still too early predictions.
I'll still go with these predictions. Things have gotten a little worse for Democrats just recently, but my predictions were on the pessimistic side for Democrats to begin with. My math was off on Governorships. I meant 8. That might be high. I'll revise down to 7. The governor's races are the least covered, most important part of the 2018 election. They are the key to reversing gerrymandering so Republicans don't have such a structurally unfair edge for the next decade as well.

The Florida legislation on restoring voting rights to felons is polling above the needed 60%. I didn't think it was likely to pass because I figured Republicans would be able to make that enough of a partisan issue to drive support below 60%. Now it seems realistically possible. That has the potential to remake Florida from a slightly red state to blueish. I'm surprised more dark money hasn't come in to crush that. Plutocrats might be asleep at the wheel on a really key electioneering issue for once.
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Not too shabby guys.
_Doctor Steuss
_Emeritus
Posts: 4597
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2007 6:57 pm

Re: How do you forecast for November?

Post by _Doctor Steuss »

Doctor Steuss wrote:
Brackite wrote:NV Dem Rosen ---- 53.6%

Personally, I don't see any way that Rosen will take the seat. From the mailers and ads I've seen, she's being out-gamed big time.

I'm officially gobsmacked.
"Some people never go crazy. What truly horrible lives they must lead." ~Charles Bukowski
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