How do you forecast for November?

[_Doctor Steuss]

NV Dem Rosen ---- 53.6%

Personally, I don't see any way that Rosen will take the seat. From the mailers and ads I've seen, she's being out-gamed big time.

[_Brackite]

NV Dem Rosen ---- 53.6%

Personally, I don't see any way that Rosen will take the seat. From the mailers and ads I've seen, she's being out-gamed big time.

Yes, 538 now has Senator Heller with about a 59% chance of winning. Link
I now think that Senator Heller will win his reelection bid.

[_EAllusion]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/r ... trust.html

This kind of scandal breaking just now would normally sink a candidate in a tight election, but we're now in "lol, nothing matters" land, if you are a Republican at least, so if anything it increases my sense of a Rick Scott win.

[_subgenius]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/rick-scott-conflicts-blind-trust.html

This kind of scandal breaking just now would normally sink a candidate in a tight election, but we're now in "lol, nothing matters" land, if you are a Republican at least, so if anything it increases my sense of a Rick Scott win.

Because Democrats were so outraged at Solyndra, amiright?

[_Brackite]

Yes, 538 now has Senator Heller with about a 59% chance of winning. Link
I now think that Senator Heller will win his reelection bid.

There is though some good news for Democrats out of Nevada. According to 538, Democrat Susie Lee has about a 72% chance of winning Nevada's 3rd Congressional district. Link
Democrats will likely need to keep Nevada's 3rd Congressional district along with picking up Arizona's 2nd Congressional district and California's 49th Congressional district to win back the House this election.

[_EAllusion]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/rick-scott-conflicts-blind-trust.html

This kind of scandal breaking just now would normally sink a candidate in a tight election, but we're now in "lol, nothing matters" land, if you are a Republican at least, so if anything it increases my sense of a Rick Scott win.

Because Democrats were so outraged at Solyndra, amiright?

You ever consider trying something other than false equivalence? Or is that you just wake up each day dedicated to it?

[_Brackite]

It is still looking good for Democrats in taking back the House.

538 now has Democrat Abby Finkenauer with a 96.9% chance of winning Iowa 1st Congressional district. Link

538 now has Democrat Sharice Davids with a 79.1% chance of winning Kansas 3rd Congressional district. Link

538 now has Democrat Congressman Tom O'Halleran with a 89% chance of winning his reelection bid in Arizona's 1st Congressional district. Link
His GOP Opponent Wendy Rogers has stated that she would like to see Social Security phased out.

538 now has Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick with a 96.6% chance of winning the Arizona's 2nd Congressional district. Link
She will very likely win by a comfortable margin.

538 now has Democrat Mike Levin with a 95.2% chance of winning California's 49th Congressional district. Link

[_MeDotOrg]

Five Thirty Eight has the House as 6 in 7 chances for the Dems, 1 out of 7 for the GOP.

I think that is a bit optimistic as of today. There is definitely some energy starting to come out of the GOP. Perhaps a combination of resentment over Kavanaugh, Trump's constant campaign rallies and the caravan going across Mexico, but I feel less sanguine about the Democrats than I did a few weeks ago.

I still think the Democrats will take the House, but I'm not sure by how much. I still think the most interesting period of time will be in the lame duck aftermath between the election and the new Congress.

[_subgenius]

Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds
The data suggests enthusiasm among early GOP voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in the midterms.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... ds-n922881

[_Brackite]

The latest from 538:

Indiana Dem Donnelly --- 71.5%
Nevada Rep Heller ------ 60.3%
Arizona Dem Sinema --- 62.1%
Florida Dem Nelson ---- 73.0%
Missouri Dem McCaskill -- 58.2%
Montana Dem Tester ---- 86.4%
ND Rep Cramer ------ 71.0%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=irpromo