How do you forecast for November?

[_EAllusion]

Beto O'Rourke raised an insane amount of money from individual donors. He's almost certainly still gonna lose, because Texas, but his popularity among Dems is pure fire right now. If the 2020 primary were today, I'd push my chips on him. (Important note: It's not.)

Also, someone needs to figure out how to get Democratic small donors to spend their money more intelligently. Ultra-wealthy Republican donors know how to contribute to mechanisms that distribute more strategically because it's a handful of people putting a large sum of money on the table. Democrats seem to pile-on in races very inefficiently.

[_subgenius]

Beto with his ethics violation, father-in-law business deals, and mother's tax fraud has him at a certain intersection of hypocrisy and cognitive disaonance for today's Democrat.
Beto wont play well on the National stage.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Beto with his ethics violation, father-in-law business deals, and mother's tax fraud has him at a certain intersection of hypocrisy and cognitive disaonance for today's Democrat.
Beto wont play well on the National stage.

You'd be surprised what kind of baggage a candidate can bring to the table and still be elected...

- Doc

[_canpakes]

Beto with his ethics violation, father-in-law business deals, and mother's tax fraud has him at a certain intersection of hypocrisy and cognitive disaonance for today's Democrat.
Beto wont play well on the National stage.

Gosh, if only he was able to have stopped his relatives from doing those things.

At least his father doesn’t hang out with murderers, as Ted Cruz’s father has. That’s what Trump has claimed about Cruz, so it must be true, right? : )

[_Brackite]

According to 538, the Democrats now have a 78.4% chance of taking back the House. Link

538 now has Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick with a 95.7% chance of winning the Arizona's 2nd Congressional district. Link

538 now has Democrat Mike Levin with a 94.3% chance of winning California's 49th Congressional district. Link

[_EAllusion]

This is one of the better political ads I've ever seen in terms of effectiveness:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... i6v4CYNSIQ

(It's from a Democrat in a deep red district, so she's probably gonna lose.)

I've never been able to figure out if most ads are terrible because data shows the production values and writing quality of a late-night commercial for Head-On actually works or if the industry is a grift on the political class. I lean towards the latter. Outside of some notable exceptions, I've also never figured out why Democrats don't do a better job of leveraging their almost total ownership of the creative class into getting a better advertising product on the cheap.

[_EAllusion]

Remember when Subgenius was on this board parroting the then Republican talking point that Republicans were well set-up for November because they would be campaigning on their tax reform that by now would be wildly popular because of all the money it put in the average Joe's pockets while paying for itself?

Feels like 10 years ago.

[_EAllusion]

Duncan Hunter is running a straight up Islamophobic campaign against his opponent. His opponent isn't Muslim. He's a Christian of Arabic descent. In the latest escalation, there's this:

https://Twitter.com/KFILE/status/1051840569864056833

His campaign is accusing his opponent of being a Muslim terrorist sleeper agent who will infiltrate the US government to pass along military secrets to Islamic terrorists.

Hunter, again, is the person who is currently indicted for campaign fraud with a boatload of evidence against him including being caught buying golf supplies for himself with the plan cynically say it was "for the troops."

He's probably gonna win.

[_Water Dog]

Duncan Hunter is running a straight up Islamophobic campaign against his opponent. His opponent isn't Muslim. He's a Christian of Arabic descent. In the latest escalation, there's this:

https://Twitter.com/KFILE/status/1051840569864056833

His campaign is accusing his opponent of being a Muslim terrorist sleeper agent who will infiltrate the US government to pass along military secrets to Islamic terrorists.

Hunter, again, is the person who is currently indicted for campaign fraud with a boatload of evidence against him including being caught buying golf supplies for himself with the plan cynically say it was "for the troops."

He's probably gonna win.

Arab Christians are often closely associated with Islamic fundy groups. In Lebanon, the Christian party is closely aligned with Hezbollah. The issue isn't whether this person is Muslim or not. No idea whether his family has ties to the PLO or not. But that would seem to be the actual concern and accusation, no? Have FBI background investigations concluded such ties exist, or not?

[_EAllusion]

Duncan Hunter is running a straight up Islamophobic campaign against his opponent. His opponent isn't Muslim. He's a Christian of Arabic descent. In the latest escalation, there's this:

https://Twitter.com/KFILE/status/1051840569864056833

His campaign is accusing his opponent of being a Muslim terrorist sleeper agent who will infiltrate the US government to pass along military secrets to Islamic terrorists.

Hunter, again, is the person who is currently indicted for campaign fraud with a boatload of evidence against him including being caught buying golf supplies for himself with the plan cynically say it was "for the troops."

He's probably gonna win.

Arab Christians are often closely associated with Islamic fundy groups. In Lebanon, the Christian party is closely aligned with Hezbollah. The issue isn't whether this person is Muslim or not. No idea whether his family has ties to the PLO or not. But that would seem to be the actual concern and accusation, no? Have FBI background investigations concluded such ties exist, or not?

My link contains a quote from Hunter arguing that Campa-Najjar changed his name so it would sound Hispanic as an example of how hard Islamic radicals are trying to infiltrate the United States. He isn't subtle about what I described.

That said, racial suspicion of Arab Christians because you fear they might be in league with Muslim terrorists is also an example of Islamophobia. Without specific evidence of wrong-doing, claiming a candidate is a terrorist suspect is terrible. Imagine running campaigns against candidates as likely sleeper agents for white supremacist terrorism on the basis that they are white and their name is "Becky Roof."