How do you forecast for November?

[_aussieguy55]

Watching a program on your elections it seems the GOP cheat their way into power by gerrymandering districts (Just look at their shapes) and voter purges. It is big joke that you claim to be a democracy. I hope as some people have predicted and another GFC comes and your conservatives get screwed. Sex and money.

[_EAllusion]

After Trump's latest crazy comments today, it's dawning on me that as insane as the past 2 years have been, no matter what happens in the elections, the next two are going to be worse. Either Democrats win and start putting real investigative pressure on the Trump admin, which covers dozens of serious scandals Republicans in Congress have simply ignored and Trump will definitely freak out about, or Republicans win and Trump takes that as a green light to really shut down the Russia investigation and ratchets up his authoritarianism by installing more cronies in the civil service.

That's what's going to happen. Either way, it's going to be an authoritarian nightmare. We're in a slow-burn Constitutional crisis as it is.

[_Brackite]

The latest from 538:

ND Dem Heitkamp -- 56.9%
IN Dem Donnelly –– 76.6%
AZ Dem Sinema — 68.3%
MO Dem McCaskill - 61.8%
NV Dem Rosen ---- 53.3%
Florida Dem Nelson ---- 61.1%
WV Dem Manchin - 88.3%

It is very good to see Senator Manchin up in the polls.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

A little more from 538:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ca ... ssissippi/

And in case people didn't click on Brackite's link:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/

So, the Senate tends to swing to the Party that isn't holding the Presidency if I'm seeing the graph in the above link correctly. We'd need 2 seats to get back to a blue Senate. I can't really see Dems losing any seats this cycle, it'd be shocking if they did. Arizona* is looking like a flip, and maybe WV?

* The Trump admin just started building their wall in AZ so this is a pretty solid litmus test for his Presidency. If Sinema wins then we can infer this wall business is a political albatross, and we'll probanly see GOP support for it ebb away.

eta: There is probably a sense of urgency for the GOP to get Kavanaugh pushed through before the Nov elections. I can't really seeing them delaying his vote, unless perhaps they've been offered a backdoor deal by the Dems for an alternate. If we see Kavanaugh tanked I bet we see a quick confirmation for the next one.

- Doc

[_honorentheos]

So, the Senate tends to swing to the Party that isn't holding the Presidency if I'm seeing the graph in the above link correctly. We'd need 2 seats to get back to a blue Senate. I can't really see Democrats losing any seats this cycle, it'd be shocking if they did. Arizona* is looking like a flip, and maybe West Virginia?

The 2018 Senate race has been seen as an uphill climb for Democrats because there are only 23 Democrats not up for reelection this election while there are 42 Republicans whose seats are absolutely safe. That means Democrats have to win 28 elections to take control while Republicans only have to win 8 to maintain control with the VP tie-break. And while more has been made of some of the Red State Democrat's precarious position than is justified in all cases, there are legitimate potential losing campaigns on the table. McCaskill in Missouri is particularly precarious. Florida is another race that could break in favor of Governor Rick Scott depending on how the wind is blowing in November.

Looking at the 538 information, they project 19 are solidly Democrat and 4 are solidly Republican (Mitt is almost certainly going to take Hatch's place), but that means the Democrats still have to pick up at least nine other races compared to only four for Republicans. There are a few real fliers this year, like Ted Cruz facing a real challenge no one could have foreseen in Texas, but really at this point it would be a real statement to see the Senate flip for Democrats. Almost every tight race has to break their way for it to be possible. Crazier things have happened (Yeah, Screw you Michigan in 2016) but it would be a real underdog story if it does.

[_honorentheos]

Another way to look at it is to look at the 9 Republican seats that are up.

As mentioned, Hatch's seat in Utah will almost certainly go to Mitt Romney.

John Barrasso in Wyoming is the safest bet in the race.

Roger Wicker in Mississippi is considered safe in keeping his seat.

Debbie Fisher in Nebraska is a pretty likely win to keep her seat.

From there, we go to Ted Cruz who absolutely shouldn't be in a close race in Texas and yet that could go either way. I wouldn't bet against it staying red.

The other seat in Mississippi is also in a runoff special election, with Cindy Hyde-Smith considered likely to win. Again, while it could break for Democrats this isn't one to bet against in my opinion.

The open seat in Tennessee is a potential surprise flip and a race where it would clearly be a slap in the face for Trump. 538 has it 60% likely to stay red. Bob Corker hasn't done Trump or his proxy Marsha Blackburn any favors with his anti-Trump positions but I think I'd keep my money out of this race, too. Well,...it would be tempting given the tangentials. It's just hard to imagine Tennessee voting in a Democrat.

Arizona and Nevada represent the two most likely Dem pick-ups but even still living here in Arizona makes it difficult to imagine Flake's seat flipping to blue for Sinema. The old and rural dynamics combined with Mormon and Catholic influences make the polling seem off to me. But I'm hopeful. Heller in Nevada is in a fight to get back on top in a state that should be flying with the economic rebound favoring an incumbent. But he's said a few dumb things and is one of those Republicans trying to win while straddling the Frenemies line with Trump. Tough call but he is perhaps the most vulnerable Republican because of his lack of clear support among the Trump base.

But even with some over performances in flipping Republican seats, Dems have to worry about Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota who is on a razor's edge along with McCaskill in Missouri and Nelsen in Florida.

[_cinepro]

We are always living through history, but sometimes we live through extraordinary history, the
Chinese curse of living in interesting times. And these times are undeniably interesting.

I think I'm just resigned to always hoping that Congress is controlled by the opposition party, with moderates in both parties having the most influence.

[_Themis]

Watching a program on your elections it seems the GOP cheat their way into power by gerrymandering districts (Just look at their shapes) and voter purges. It is big joke that you claim to be a democracy. I hope as some people have predicted and another GFC comes and your conservatives get screwed. Sex and money.

The US is considered a flawed democracy and is heading downward atm. The problem is too many people like subby and ajax who don't care as long as their perceived side is winning. If we have too many of them it will allow people like Trump, who is clearly authoritarian at heart, to keep taking away more democracy until none remains.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Watching a program on your elections it seems the GOP cheat their way into power by gerrymandering districts (Just look at their shapes) and voter purges. It is big joke that you claim to be a democracy. I hope as some people have predicted and another GFC comes and your conservatives get screwed. Sex and money.

The US is considered a flawed democracy and is heading downward atm. The problem is too many people like subby and ajax who don't care as long as their perceived side is winning. If we have too many of them it will allow people like Trump, who is clearly authoritarian at heart, to keep taking away more democracy until none remains.

I cringe a bit when I read an opinion like this, because I was pretty on board with Bernie and look how the system did him dirty. What could've been...

- Doc

[_Themis]

I cringe a bit when I read an opinion like this, because I was pretty on board with Bernie and look how the system did him dirty. What could've been...

- Doc

The opinion of the US being a falwed democracy does not come from me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index