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 Post subject: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:48 am 
God

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Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida after Parkland

Yeah, I'd be totally stunned if Trump wins Florida in 2020. I mean, after Parkland and screwing over Puerto Rico the way he did... tens of thousands flocked to Florida to stay with family. And they'll like be voting too.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:37 am 
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The kicker may be a split dem ticket...if there is a a Biden type running, and a far far left advocate like the one from New York, the GOP may easily win, similar to Bush the elder and Perot.

Also if the economy is still growing, it will be tough, people vote by their pocket book when they get into the booth.

Without arguing, who will be the blue candidate?

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:50 am 
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Clinton won Miami-Dade and Orange Counties by larger margins than Obama, but she still lost Florida to Trump. Florida outside of those two counties has gotten more red (Republican) over the last several years. Democratic Senator Nelson of Florida is up for reelection this year, and I do want him to win his reelection bid, but he is still trailing a bit to GOP Governor Rick Scott in the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6246.html

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:11 pm 
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How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:17 pm 
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It does depend a bit on the nominee, but I think Trump is likely to be stronger in Florida than in PA, WI, and MI. If he's losing Florida, he's probably lost those first. Florida has been tilting a little bit more red despite other trends going on because of an increasing demographic divide based on age and Florida having a huge retirement population. Bill Nelson is in serious trouble right now in a huge Democratic wave environment.

Regarding the point about youth registration, this is part of a broader trend that's been showing up in reporting that suggests 1) young people registration is way up and 2) intent to vote measures of young people are flat, which means extremely low like usual. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in reality.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:22 pm 
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Maksutov wrote:
How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?


The crazy thing is the 2016 polls were quite accurate. Clinton won the popular vote margin roughly within a margin of error against poll of polls measures that was lower than average. The miss was little less than 2%. If this measure is off by 2, 6, 10 or even 15% in either direction, it's still a significant finding.

Because Clinton was treated as an inevitable winner in the media, which was realistic pre-Comey letter, I think there's this totally inaccurate sense that there was a huge polling miss. There wasn't. The polls were off in the favor of Trump slightly less than they were off in the favor of Obama in 2012. The difference, of course, is that the polls predicted Obama would win by +2 and he won by +4, and people don't pay as much attention when the outcome isn't reversed.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:55 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
It does depend a bit on the nominee, but I think Trump is likely to be stronger in Florida than in PA, WI, and MI. If he's losing Florida, he's probably lost those first. Florida has been tilting a little bit more red despite other trends going on because of an increasing demographic divide based on age and Florida having a huge retirement population. Bill Nelson is in serious trouble right now in a huge Democratic wave environment.

Regarding the point about youth registration, this is part of a broader trend that's been showing up in reporting that suggests 1) young people registration is way up and 2) intent to vote measures of young people are flat, which means extremely low like usual. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in reality.


I attended a rally led by some of the Parkland kids in Salt Lake City recently. It made news because of unpleasantries between them and some aggressive gun activists. The young people on the panel were surprisingly articulate and modest in the changes they were proposing. While I don't think reinstating the assault weapons ban will be as successful as they seem to think, for me the issue is to support their First Amendment rights in the face of hostile and often heavily armed critics who seem to care about nothing beyond 2A.

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:01 pm 
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The other thing to remember is that since the voting rights act was gutted by the Supreme Court, voter roll purges designed to target likely Democrat voters are way up. That could more than off-set any uptick in youth registration. You can't look at these factors in isolation.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:53 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
Maksutov wrote:
How many feel the same way about polls since 2016?


The crazy thing is the 2016 polls were quite accurate. Clinton won the popular vote margin roughly within a margin of error against poll of polls measures that was lower than average. The miss was little less than 2%. If this measure is off by 2, 6, 10 or even 15% in either direction, it's still a significant finding.

Because Clinton was treated as an inevitable winner in the media, which was realistic pre-Comey letter, I think there's this totally inaccurate sense that there was a huge polling miss. There wasn't. The polls were off in the favor of Trump slightly less than they were off in the favor of Obama in 2012. The difference, of course, is that the polls predicted Obama would win by +2 and he won by +4, and people don't pay as much attention when the outcome isn't reversed.

I understand this is accurate and yet a healthy skepticism is warranted somewhere. Perhaps it's not the data, but the people we're listening to interpret it.

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:13 pm 
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purging voter rolls and gerrymandering and you call your country a democracy?

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:48 pm 
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aussieguy55 wrote:
purging voter rolls and gerrymandering and you call your country a democracy?


A flawed one.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:59 pm 
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Kevin Graham wrote:
Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida after Parkland

Yeah, I'd be totally stunned if Trump wins Florida in 2020. I mean, after Parkland and screwing over Puerto Rico the way he did... tens of thousands flocked to Florida to stay with family. And they'll like be voting too.

Puerto Ricans aren't allowed to vote in Presidential election.

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:50 pm 
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subgenius wrote:
Puerto Ricans aren't allowed to vote in Presidential election.


They are if they live on the mainland, and that's the point. Trump's inaction in Puerto Rico, forcing them to move to the mainland effectively turns them into potential voters.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:46 am 
God
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Kishkumen wrote:
aussieguy55 wrote:
purging voter rolls and gerrymandering and you call your country a democracy?


A flawed one.


At some point a matter of degree (how bad are the flaws?) can become a change of kind (is this in any meaningful sense a democracy any more?). Let's set a minimum standard for 'democracy', and say that it is a state of affairs in which a government is subject to an informed evaluation of its performance by an electorate, who are then able to displace a government that the majority of persons qualified to vote disapprove of. (I frame that deliberately in negative terms; there may be more useful definitions, and posters are welcome to propose them.)

In Russia, people still get to vote, but no effective expression of views critical of Putin is allowed, and his opponents all turn out to be guilty of crimes that put them in jail or disqualify them from running against him. And as for the voting process, well ... would you still call Russia a democracy, given all that?

How far does the US have to go in the direction of gerrymandering to ensure that a Democrat vote counts for less than a Republican vote, and 'voter cleansing' making it generally difficult for likely Democrats to vote, plus allowing unlimited amounts of privately funded political advertising backed by very rich people, plus ... all the rest of it ... before one ends up being seriously worried about whether the word 'democracy' means a great deal? I don't think the US has reached that point yet, by the way.

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:02 am 
God
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So, for example, if the significant surge of Democratic voters in California are Bernie-crats we see that this does more harm for Democrats than good. Because the CA parrynow supports de Leon over Feinstein. This will inevitably translate to less money in the war chest for fighting the GOP assault - because the big money behind Feinstein will easily not donate to the Party coffer that endorses her rival. And with the severe swing to the left you can wave goodbye to Kamala's 2020 chances.

This notion for the "increase" in voter registration as being good for Democrats is superficial inasmuch as it ignores the serious fractures in that party. As we see in California it may provide more benefit to Republicans in 2018.

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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:22 pm 
God
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Winning an election certainly depends on more than the registration of likely supporters as voters.

But if no supporters register as voters, all the money in the Koch brothers' bank account won't get you elected.

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Zadok:
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Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.


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 Post subject: Re: Youth voter registration went up 41 percent in Florida
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:08 pm 
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Chap wrote:
At some point a matter of degree (how bad are the flaws?) can become a change of kind (is this in any meaningful sense a democracy any more?). Let's set a minimum standard for 'democracy', and say that it is a state of affairs in which a government is subject to an informed evaluation of its performance by an electorate, who are then able to displace a government that the majority of persons qualified to vote disapprove of. (I frame that deliberately in negative terms; there may be more useful definitions, and posters are welcome to propose them.)

In Russia, people still get to vote, but no effective expression of views critical of Putin is allowed, and his opponents all turn out to be guilty of crimes that put them in jail or disqualify them from running against him. And as for the voting process, well ... would you still call Russia a democracy, given all that?

How far does the US have to go in the direction of gerrymandering to ensure that a Democrat vote counts for less than a Republican vote, and 'voter cleansing' making it generally difficult for likely Democrats to vote, plus allowing unlimited amounts of privately funded political advertising backed by very rich people, plus ... all the rest of it ... before one ends up being seriously worried about whether the word 'democracy' means a great deal? I don't think the US has reached that point yet, by the way.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

You will find Russia in the bottom category(authoritarian) and the US in the flawed democracy category. Be interesting to see how that changes for 2018.

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