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 Post subject: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:34 pm 
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Irma already has the highest observed sustained wind speeds of any hurricane outside the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. A lot can happen between now and possible North American landfall, but I would not want to be on Puerto Rico in the next few days.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:49 pm 
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Yeah, it's at Cat 5 now if I'm not mistaken. Super size strength, super size bad.

:eek:

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:55 pm 
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Porto Rico, Haiti, and Cuba are in for a rough time. While no one knows for sure at this point, it could reasonably be expected to cross between Cuba and Florida right into the Gulf of Mexico, with Texas and Mexico in its sights. :eek:


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:38 pm 
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The CCC wrote:
Porto Rico, Haiti, and Cuba are in for a rough time. While no one knows for sure at this point, it could reasonably be expected to cross between Cuba and Florida right into the Gulf of Mexico, with Texas and Mexico in its sights. :eek:

I've been following prediction models on this one for a little while. That's a fairly remote possibility. While there's a small chance, the real risk cleared a few days ago. It's the Caribbean and lower Southeastern US at most substantial risk at the moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:56 pm 
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Here is what I've been looking at.
SEE https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... a-map.html


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Contact with Florida possible at around 8 PM Friday night.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:22 pm 
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Evacuations are being ordered in SE Florida. After Harvey, forecasters aren't playing Russian roulette this time with people's lives.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:18 pm 
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The CCC wrote:
Porto Rico, Haiti, and Cuba are in for a rough time. While no one knows for sure at this point, it could reasonably be expected to cross between Cuba and Florida right into the Gulf of Mexico, with Texas and Mexico in its sights. :eek:


I think the more likely case is that if it makes landfall in Florida, it's going to up the East Coast until it finally breaks up.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:20 pm 
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AmyJo wrote:
Evacuations are being ordered in SE Florida. After Harvey, forecasters aren't playing Russian roulette this time with people's lives.


That's so good to hear, Amy Jo. Those folks are lucky they've got a mandatory jump in the storm.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:01 pm 
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I was just watching a report on this. The storm is something like 300 miles wide. Holy cats. I hope folks evacuate like right now. If they wait too long, they're going to get stranded some place when it makes landfall.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:02 pm 
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AmyJo wrote:
Evacuations are being ordered in SE Florida. After Harvey, forecasters aren't playing Russian roulette this time with people's lives.

Evacuating Houston on the timeline they had would've left huge numbers of people stranded in the middle of a hurricane. The logistics of getting that many people out that quickly are a nightmare.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:06 pm 
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The CCC wrote:
Here is what I've been looking at.
SEE https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... a-map.html

That link's visuals make it seem like it could mosey on over into the gulf, but if you look at full spaghetti models, by far the most common prediction is a hard turn somewhere around Florida. The graphs it is using just don't depict that part of the projections.

Here's a recent pic

The hurricane making it into the gulf and hitting Texas and/or Mexico would be a very low probability event.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:07 pm 
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On an interesting note, here's why you can't nuke a hurricane near its center hoping to disrupt it:

https://www.livescience.com/24383-can-y ... ng-it.html

Quote:
Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, posted an explanation when he was a research meteorologist with NOAA.

"The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required," Landsea wrote.

A hurricane gets its energy from warm ocean water, and in the process of water vapor condensing into rain droplets. The heat released during condensation serves to continue to warm the surrounding air, which causes more seawater to evaporate, condense, and continue the cycle.

A fully developed hurricane releases 50 or more terawatts of heat energy at any given moment, only about 1 percent of which is converted into wind. The heat release, Landsea wrote, "is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes." The entire human race in 2011 used about a third of the energy present in an average hurricane.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:07 pm 
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400 miles wide.

OMG.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:33 am 
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National Weather Service Guy: It is a category 5 hurricane.

Fox News Interviewer: Do you think it will get any faster like a category 6 or 7?

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:50 am 
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Irma is now the strongest storm in the Atlantic ever on record. It'll be weaker when it hits Florida, but Puerto Rico is in a bad way.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:15 am 
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EAllusion wrote:
Irma is now the strongest storm in the Atlantic ever on record. It'll be weaker when it hits Florida, but Puerto Rico is in a bad way.


Has any major TV news outlet yet referred to the fact that the appearance of an unprecedentedly energy-rich (hence powerful and damaging) storm like Irma may just possibly have something to do with the fact the the ocean is now markedly warmer than it used to be, and thus can supply a young storm with much more energy that it might have otherwise been able to gather? Its, like, the agreed science even for climate change deniers that more warm water means more powerful storms.

It would be good if someone could give that fact a few minutes airtime.

But no, apart from pictures of the scenes of devastation, I suspect it will mostly be about impressive promises by senior politicians to rebuild everything in the same unsafe places as before as soon as possible, while people organise mass pray-ins.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:41 am 
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Chap wrote:
EAllusion wrote:
Irma is now the strongest storm in the Atlantic ever on record. It'll be weaker when it hits Florida, but Puerto Rico is in a bad way.


Has any major TV news outlet yet referred to the fact that the appearance of an unprecedentedly energy-rich (hence powerful and damaging) storm like Irma may just possibly have something to do with the fact the the ocean is now markedly warmer than it used to be, and thus can supply a young storm with much more energy that it might have otherwise been able to gather? Its, like, the agreed science even for climate change deniers that more warm water means more powerful storms.

It would be good if someone could give that fact a few minutes airtime.

But no, apart from pictures of the scenes of devastation, I suspect it will mostly be about impressive promises by senior politicians to rebuild everything in the same unsafe places as before as soon as possible, while people organise mass pray-ins.
Yes, but I'm not getting my news from cable.

Global warming denialists have gotten good at attacking any linking between undesireable weather events when they happen and climate change as crass and dirty. It's portrayed as exploiting tradjedy.

The linking requires scientific nuance and caution which a lot of news formats handle poorly.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:49 am 
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Jose is looking like it could get very bad too...


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:05 am 
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EAllusion wrote:
Global warming denialists have gotten good at attacking any linking between undesireable weather events when they happen and climate change as crass and dirty. It's portrayed as exploiting tradjedy.

The linking requires scientific nuance and caution which a lot of news formats handle poorly.


So .. there are TV presenters out there being paid millions of dollars a year, and they can't manage to link to a segment like this?

Quote:
Presenter:

.... I think those terrible pictures of the destruction wrought by Hurricane XXX will be heart-wrenching for the good folks watching. Those whose homes have been destroyed and who have lost loved ones have all our thoughts and prayers, as do the brave relief personnel risking their lives to help. If you want to send money to support the relief efforts, here's a number you can call with your credit card.

But what makes a storm like XXX so destructive? Professor A is a weather expert from the University of Y. Professor, I've heard that a storm like this has more energy than an H-bomb. Is that true?

Professor A: In fact it has the energy of an H-bomb explosion every twenty minutes, while it lasts. That's why it's so destructive.

Presenter: But where does it get all that energy?

Professor X: Basically, a hurricane is a kind of weather machine that takes energy from warm ocean water and uses it to power massive wind energy. The oceans are getting warmer, so the the hurricanes have more wind energy than ever before. That's why they are causing damage like we have never seen.

Presenter: Thank you, Professor X. And now we go over to the White House, where the president will try to look presidential ...


What would be so hard about that?

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:16 am 
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Chap wrote:
EAllusion wrote:
Global warming denialists have gotten good at attacking any linking between undesireable weather events when they happen and climate change as crass and dirty. It's portrayed as exploiting tradjedy.

The linking requires scientific nuance and caution which a lot of news formats handle poorly.


So .. there are TV presenters out there being paid millions of dollars a year, and they can't manage to link to a segment like this?

Quote:
Presenter:

.... I think those terrible pictures of the destruction wrought by Hurricane XXX will be heart-wrenching for the good folks watching. Those whose homes have been destroyed and who have lost loved ones have all our thoughts and prayers, as do the brave relief personnel risking their lives to help. If you want to send money to support the relief efforts, here's a number you can call with your credit card.

But what makes a storm like XXX so destructive? Professor A is a weather expert from the University of Y. Professor, I've heard that a storm like this has more energy than an H-bomb. Is that true?

Professor A: In fact it has the energy of an H-bomb explosion every twenty minutes, while it lasts. That's why it's so destructive.

Presenter: But where does it get all that energy?

Professor X: Basically, a hurricane is a kind of weather machine that takes energy from warm ocean water and uses it to power massive wind energy. The oceans are getting warmer, so the the hurricanes have more wind energy than ever before. That's why they are causing damage like we have never seen.

Presenter: Thank you, Professor X. And now we go over to the White House, where the president will try to look presidential ...


What would be so hard about that?

Last week, I recall hearing a quick blurb about a significant patch of warm water causing hurricane Harvey to pick up energy, pushing wind speeds to much higher levels. The actual report was only seconds long. This was Network News, probably channel 12, which does seem to give a much more complete weather report than most other channels here on the East Coast. I don't recall a mention of why the water was warmer.


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