Pray Irma turns right

[_Kevin Graham]

Yesterday I saw the news guys say that the predicted 10-15 ft surge had been reduced to 3-5 ft. This thing was over-hyped as I suspected. It isn't even a hurricane anymore. I'm 300 miles north of the center and everyone here is still acting like an apocalyptic event is around the corner as the "storm" gets weaker and weaker by the hour. Good grief people. Looking outside right now, it looks like a normal dreary day with slight rain and a gentle breeze. Good thing we emptied all the shelves at Kroger!

My Dad is in Malabar and he was thinking about leaving but didn't want to risk running out of gas in the middle of nowhere while 6 million tried to leave the state on the same road.

[_Quasimodo]

Downgraded to Cat 1?? Not bad!

Is Orlando okay? I'm sorry I'm so selfish I know.

There is good news and bad news.

The good news is that Orlando has survived with minimal damage.

The bad news is that ticket prices at Universal remain very high.

[_EAllusion]

Yesterday I saw the news guys say that the predicted 10-15 ft surge had been reduced to 3-5 ft. This thing was over-hyped as I suspected. It isn't even a hurricane anymore. I'm 300 miles north of the center and everyone here is still acting like an apocalyptic event is around the corner as the "storm" gets weaker and weaker by the hour. Good grief people. Looking outside right now, it looks like a normal dreary day with slight rain and a gentle breeze. Good thing we emptied all the shelves at Kroger!

My Dad is in Malabar and he was thinking about leaving but didn't want to risk running out of gas in the middle of nowhere while 6 million tried to leave the state on the same road.

What you seem to be missing is that more catastrophic outcomes were on the table and only didn't happen for some random fluctuations that could've just as easily gone the other way. You have to warn people people to prepare for the worst of the realistic outcomes.

The worst thing that could happen here is for people to believe that serious hurricane warnings are just a bunch of hype and not prepare the next time a major warning comes through.

[_Kishkumen]

Here is my aftermath report:

We came out of Irma relatively unscathed. One cover on a skylight was broken by a tree branch. Our yard is filled with branches of various sizes.There is a large puddle of water around the kids' old swing set.

And that's it.

We never lost power, which makes us fortunate even in Gainesville.

My spouse said the strong winds kept her awake last night. I stirred once at a particularly strong gust. The rest of the night I slept pretty peacefully.

Thanks for all the good wishes. You guys are awesome!

[_Jersey Girl]

Downgraded to Cat 1?? Not bad!

Is Orlando okay? I'm sorry I'm so selfish I know.

There is good news and bad news.

The good news is that Orlando has survived with minimal damage.

The bad news is that ticket prices at Universal remain very high.

Um, this girl already has her tickets! Hogwarts has survived, good news for Witches and Wizards everywhere!

[_Jersey Girl]

Here is my aftermath report:

We came out of Irma relatively unscathed. One cover on a skylight was broken by a tree branch. Our yard is filled with branches of various sizes.There is a large puddle of water around the kids' old swing set.

And that's it.

We never lost power, which makes us fortunate even in Gainesville.

My spouse said the strong winds kept her awake last night. I stirred once at a particularly strong gust. The rest of the night I slept pretty peacefully.

Thanks for all the good wishes. You guys are awesome!

That's so good to hear!

[_Jersey Girl]

Here's a way to help evacuees that never occurred to me. Airbnb is reaching out to folks who want to provide housing for evacuees. Heads up for this came from one of my local resources.

https://www.airbnb.com/welcome/evacuees

[_Jersey Girl]

Yesterday I saw the news guys say that the predicted 10-15 ft surge had been reduced to 3-5 ft. This thing was over-hyped as I suspected. It isn't even a hurricane anymore. I'm 300 miles north of the center and everyone here is still acting like an apocalyptic event is around the corner as the "storm" gets weaker and weaker by the hour. Good grief people. Looking outside right now, it looks like a normal dreary day with slight rain and a gentle breeze. Good thing we emptied all the shelves at Kroger!

My Dad is in Malabar and he was thinking about leaving but didn't want to risk running out of gas in the middle of nowhere while 6 million tried to leave the state on the same road.

Yes, but here is the thing. I don't know if it was over-hyped or not, but I can only imagine what would have happened had they predicted a 3-5ft storm surge that turned out to be 10-15ft and people failed to evacuate or worse, were swept away. All hell would have broken loose. I don't think it's entirely predictable beyond predicting a range.

Even with a 3-5 storm surge particularly at high tide, for example, there would have been no way for EMS to respond to 911 calls with motor vehicles. With power outages due to gale force winds, folks on electrical medical equipment wouldn't have had access to their treatments. Better to err on the side of caution and advise evacuation like they did. Collect people in large groups into shelters where, if needed, medical treatment and medications are still accessible by relief workers.

And besides all that, many of those folks whose houses were flooded aren't likely to find them inhabitable due to mold, damaged heating and cooling systems, and that sort of thing. I don't even want to think about an increase in mosquito population!

I hear you about the reporters you mentioned earlier. If one of them got clocked upside the head or in the face by flying debris (metal stop sign) they wouldn't be so willing to send reporters outdoors while at the same time telling "civilians" to remain indoors. Crazy mixed message that is and not a little stupid!

[_Kevin Graham]

Yes, but here is the thing. I don't know if it was over-hyped or not, but I can only imagine what would have happened had they predicted a 3-5ft storm surge that turned out to be 10-15ft and people failed to evacuate or worse, were swept away.

Sure, but this will only affect those on the coast and particularly those dumb enough to stay on the coast. Fleeing the entire state was an overreaction. The state wide evacuation was an overreaction. I'm no meteorologist but I've experienced enough hurricanes to not be too concerned about this one. As soon as it hit Cuba and started to weaken I knew it would do the same and dissipate as it hit coastal Florida. What made this storm so impressive was how wide it was. Something like 350 miles in diameter. But this is only relevant to flooding issues because of all the rain. The sustained winds that everyone feared were mostly around the 16 mile diameter of the eye and that quickly diminished as soon as it hit landfall.

All hell would have broken loose. I don't think it's entirely predictable beyond predicting a range.

Well there were journalists with cameramen lined up along the shores as the hurricane hit. Apparently, being a scrawny guy from Colorado with a windbreaker and a film crew is enough to stay alive, even out in the streets. But experienced residents who were living in concrete, hurricane proof houses needed to flee the state?

Even with a 3-5 storm surge particularly at high tide, for example, there would have been no way for EMS to respond to 911 calls with motor vehicles.

Oh I agree, but this would have been the case in very limited areas and only if people were dumb enough to stay within the surge area. So why scare the crap out of the entire state, as well as Georgia and Alabama? This is like warning people in Nevada of a tidal wave in San Diego. It just drove me nuts from Thursday through Monday. All schools closed down yesterday and today. My wife started pulling all of our outdoor furniture inside the house on Sunday night. And yesterday evening was when the storm's epicenter hit our zip code and all we got was a gust or two with sustained sprinkling. I was driving to the gym listening to Erick Erickson on the radio at the time and he was urging everyone to get off the roads as quickly as possible. Cops were patrolling the town as I was pulling up to my 24 hr gym. It was great, I was the only one there.

Better to err on the side of caution and advise evacuation like they did.

I think residents will see this as the media crying wolf and if it happens too many times then their "err on the side of caution" philosophy is going to eventually backfire because if and when the mother of all storms does arrive people will view it as just more hype because they've heard it all before.

And besides all that, many of those folks whose houses were flooded aren't likely to find them inhabitable due to mold, damaged heating and cooling systems, and that sort of thing. I don't even want to think about an increase in mosquito population!

Most Florida homes are made of iron and cinder-block, unless they're a trailer, they're not likely to float away like you see these wooden houses in floods in the Mid-West. My uncle has a condo in Panama City and it is right on the beach and has been flooded several times in the past 30 years, usually every time a hurricane hits. The water eventually recedes and they may have to replace the flooring or maybe a couple electrical outlets. But they don't lose their house.

I hear you about the reporters you mentioned earlier. If one of them got clocked upside the head or in the face by flying debris (metal stop sign) they wouldn't be so willing to send reporters outdoors while at the same time telling "civilians" to remain indoors. Crazy mixed message that is and not a little stupid!

Well the thing is, they're living proof that people don't necessarily die just because they're on the coast when a Cat 4 hurricane hits. Hell, they're not even pretending to be concerned for their lives because they're not in shelter; they're out in the streets putting on a friggin show.