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 Post subject: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:33 pm 
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So how long before the agenda shifts to the fault of Global Warming? It's been over a decade for this kind of storm in the gulf or our southern states. Been really pissing off all the globe heads. I'm thinking it's gonna be used faster than a condem by a priest at boys town!

How bout ya all? When do you think?


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:13 pm 
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Do the experts say global warming is happening? Do the experts say increased warming will contribute to increased intensity of storms like Hurricanes?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:01 pm 
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Bach wrote:
I'm thinking it's gonna be used faster than a condem by a priest at boys town!

Uh, it's actually spelled condom.

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:25 pm 
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MeDotOrg wrote:
Bach wrote:
I'm thinking it's gonna be used faster than a condem by a priest at boys town!
Uh, it's actually spelled condom.

spelling was never be good at trolls

Quote:
"Devestatio"
Sorry, no results!
Similar results:
English: detestation, devastation, delectation, devastating, devastate

Please contribute to the dictionary! Suggest a translation: devestatio (with lower case "d"...)

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:27 pm 
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tip:
"bach" can not fix the title of the thread... just saying

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Choyo Chagas is Chairman of the Big Four, the ruler of the planet from "The Bull's Hour" ( Russian: Час Быка), a social science fiction novel written by Soviet author and paleontologist Ivan Yefremov in 1968.
Six months after its publication Soviet authorities banned the book and attempted to remove it from libraries and bookshops.


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:18 am 
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Choyo Chagas wrote:
"Devestatio"
Sorry, no results!
Similar results:
English: detestation, devastation, delectation, devastating, devastate

I think Bach may have been referring to the Spanish language song Despacito. He has been a fan since hearing the Justin Bieber version. Don't ask why just build that wall!

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:50 am 
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So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:16 am 
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There is no license per say. However a degree from a recognized college in the subject, plus an established record of published research in peer reviewed scientific journals is a help. A larger point is that one person can not make science. It is a process of repeated experimentation by many scientists that make science.


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:40 pm 
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subgenius wrote:
So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?

It's a complex process, not capable of being reduced to a few simple rules.

But in the same way that people who like playing baseball (or poker) tend to agree about which of their friends can also play baseball (or poker), without anybody needing to pass a test and wear a badge, there exists a broad community of expert practitioners of any given scientific discipline who tend to agree who is a member of that community and who is not - even if they do not necessarily agree with the scientific positions espoused by the person in question.

Example: "Yup, X is an astrophysicist. I meet him at all the congresses, and his stuff gets published in Proc. Roy. Soc. from time to time. Of course, I think he is quite wrong about the way supernova explosions generate the higher elements. But then his PhD supervisor was Y, so whaddya expect?"

NB: Of course, I am as anonymous as you are. So, if you like, you can just assume that I am making all this up ...

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:13 pm 
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subgenius wrote:
So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?


Same ways we figure out who is an expert in electrical engineering, medicine, cardiology, petroleum engineering, astronomy, international Law, geophysics, etc. Is that too hard to figure out for you?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:35 pm 
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Bach wrote:
So how long before the agenda shifts to the fault of Global Warming? It's been over a decade for this kind of storm in the gulf or our southern states. Been really pissing off all the globe heads. I'm thinking it's gonna be used faster than a condem by a priest at boys town!

How bout ya all? When do you think?


Only "over a decade" ago? Can you name one storm ever quite like this one? Before Harvey, the most it had ever rained in Houston in a single day was bout 8 inches. Last Sunday, it rained over twice that much.

Anyway, the conversation has already begun if you're interested:

Hurricane Harvey has brought “500-year” rainfall and flood conditions to the Houston area, according to officials at the Harris County Flood Control District.

As of August 31, widespread areas around Houston have experienced flooding reaching 1,000-year thresholds or more.
But 500-year floods, as it turns out, happen more frequently than you might expect. The Houston area alone has seen no fewer than three such events in the past three years, according to local officials: Memorial Day floods in 2015 and 2016, followed by Hurricane Harvey's torrential rains this year.

So is Houston just on a historically unlucky run of flooding, to be followed by a return to normal soon? Or was there some miscalculation of how frequently these massive flooding events occur? Or, most alarmingly, is something else happening that suggests these catastrophic weather events are becoming much more common?

....

It's unwise to try to link climate change to any specific storm or even string of storms. Even if we weren't heating the planet with a steady stream of human greenhouse gases, all of these storms would have likely happened anyway. But climate scientists do believe that global warming is creating conditions that allow these storms to become more powerful, and perhaps even more frequent.

Climatologists say the mechanism by which this is happening is fairly straightforward. “Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air,” according to the 2014 Climate Assessment produced by the U.S. government. “Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming. This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfalls.”

That assessment includes this eye-opening chart on the rising prevalence of “heavy precipitation events” — defined in this case as five-year rain events, or events that have a 20 percent change of occurring in any given year.

Image

This charts the number of these events in a given decade, relative to the average number for the period of 1900 to 1960. The 1990s saw 30 percent more of these heavy rainmakers than the typical decade between 1900 and 1960 did. In the 2000s there were 40 percent more of these events.

There's one final issue: Not all estimates of 100-year or 500-year events are equal.

Terms like 100-year and 500-year began to be applied to floods with the creation of the National Flood Insurance Program in 1968. The program needed to identify which areas of the United States were at risk of flooding and which weren't. Floodplains came to be defined as land likely to flood during a 100-year rain event.

Climatologists base their estimates of 100-year and 1,000-year rainfall estimates based on a statistical analysis of prior years' rainfall data. The more data you have, the better your estimate is. Some places have more data available than others. As new data rolls in every year, estimates everywhere can be updated.

All of that is alarming news for residents of Houston, New Orleans and the millions of other people who live in areas vulnerable to extreme flooding. It cumulatively suggests that what we once projected would be extreme weather is more common than we thought and, as the climate cooks, is only getting more so.

The latest data we have on extreme precipitation events, through 2015, shows that the trends outlined above are likely to continue.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... c3c4b0828a

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:36 pm 
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subgenius wrote:
So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?

I think Bach should get to decide/determine since he's such a great jobs creator.

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 4:56 pm 
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Analytics wrote:
subgenius wrote:
So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?

I think Bach should get to decide/determine since he's such a great jobs creator.

Is he an expert at that?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:02 pm 
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Analytics wrote:

Your graph and assertions are misleading because they do not account for the changes in methods, accuracy, and scope in observing and measuring....especially in a context that requires a much larger context.

So it is not at all convincing. In reality a 100 year flood could occur 3 years in a row and not influence it's 100 year-ness.

So yeah, there's that

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:23 pm 
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subgenius wrote:
Analytics wrote:
I think Bach should get to decide/determine since he's such a great jobs creator.

Is he an expert at that?

He is better than being an expert at that. He's a job creator!

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:45 am 
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Dollars to donuts this guy claims to be a goood Chrissstian.

SEE https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017455084


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:48 pm 
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Themis wrote:
subgenius wrote:
So, um, who gets to decide/determine which scientists are "experts"? Is there a license involved?


Same ways we figure out who is an expert in electrical engineering, medicine, cardiology, petroleum engineering, astronomy, international Law, geophysics, etc. Is that too hard to figure out for you?

Obviously as hard as it is for you to answer.

Like in my profession, we don't claim "expertise" per se. But with science, one claiming "expertise" is just saying they are really good at observing and recording. I mean do you guys really give credence to someone who claims to predict the future?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:43 am 
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subgenius wrote:
Obviously as hard as it is for you to answer.


Funny to watch you play dumb to avoid the obvious. You know well we can figure out who the experts are in regards to climate, and we both know what they say does not support what you are determined to believe.

Quote:
Like in my profession, we don't claim "expertise" per se. But with science, one claiming "expertise" is just saying they are really good at observing and recording. I mean do you guys really give credence to someone who claims to predict the future?


Maybe not with Prophets. They have a terrible record, but with science they do. How did all those people know so far in advance when and where to go to watch a solar eclipse?

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:44 am 
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Themis wrote:
Quote:
... But with science, one claiming "expertise" is just saying they are really good at observing and recording. I mean do you guys really give credence to someone who claims to predict the future?


Maybe not with Prophets. They have a terrible record, but with science they do. How did all those people know so far in advance when and where to go to watch a solar eclipse?


Subgenius seems to have no real acquaintance with the social and institutional context within which professional scientists are trained, do their work, and evaluate the work of others.

As you indicate, wherever possible a scientist who wants to put forward a new way of thinking about a given class of phenomena will try hard to make predictions based on that way of thinking, and to show that those predictions turn out to be correct. It's not always possible to do that straightforwardly, but yes, 'predicting the future' is a big boost to a scientific reputation.

As for solar eclipses - one of the great tests of astronomical theories in the past has been to predict the precise time and degree of future solar eclipses. If your predictions of the future in this regard turned out to be better than those of others, that was a great point in your favor.

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:28 am 
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Science is worthless without the ability to make accurate predictions about the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:16 pm 
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The CCC wrote:
Science is worthless without the ability to make accurate predictions about the future.


I think that risks being an over-generalisation.

Thus for instance the science of geology largely arose in the effort to understand what kind of events in the past might have led to the creation of the rocks we see today. It's not really a very future oriented science, though it can point to some ongoing processes which will probably have future consequences.

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I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
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That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.


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