Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

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_Analytics
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Analytics »

As an example, there was a guy who used to post at Folks of the Fringe who some here might remember. He had been an engineer, but apparently a mediocre one because when he lost his job, he spent years searching but couldn't find any work in his field. Apparently he couldn't keep up with the changing technology (i.e. average IQ?), and didn't have the soft skills required for management. As he widened his search, he often heard that he was too old to start working in a new field and wouldn't be able to keep up with younger kids. He was in his mid 40's, perhaps.

Eventually he got desperate and inquired about a job as a truck driver. The trucking company was quite excited to talk to him--apparently, he was exactly the right age to start a career as a truck driver. Ever since then, I put in the back of my mind that if this actuary thing doesn't work out for me, I'll start driving a truck.

As I type this, there are people with high IQs who are posed to make billions off of the design and implementation of self-driving trucks. As this gets put into production over the next 10 years, the 3.5 million guys driving trucks will lose their jobs. My new Plan B is waiting tables.

So Murray's model is all about meritocracy--not a class struggle between the fat lazy and dumb bourgeoisie and the working class. It's just that he thinks there will be great opportunities for people who can successfully compete in a complicated world. "Complicated" means complicated technology, complicated business relationships, and complicated legal contracts in a complicated legal environment.

He predicts that the children of rich kids are also likely to be rich not because they inherit the means of production from their parents, but rather because they inherit the brains that are required to compete for the high-paying jobs.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_Gadianton
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Gadianton »

Analytics wrote:So Murray's model is all about meritocracy--not a class struggle between the fat lazy and dumb bourgeoisie and the working class.


Yeah...you must not be reading what I'm actually writing. ; )
Lou Midgley 08/20/2020: "...meat wad," and "cockroach" are pithy descriptions of human beings used by gemli? They were not fashioned by Professor Peterson.

LM 11/23/2018: one can explain away the soul of human beings...as...a Meat Unit, to use Professor Peterson's clever derogatory description of gemli's ideology.
_Analytics
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Analytics »

Gadianton wrote:
Analytics wrote:So Murray's model is all about meritocracy--not a class struggle between the fat lazy and dumb bourgeoisie and the working class.


Yeah...you must not be reading what I'm actually writing. ; )

LOL
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_Gadianton
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Gadianton »

Does Murray discuss outsourcing and automation, the two obvious contributors to declining middle class? How iq matters here varies and isn't really consistent with his claim given who is affected, in what order, and who makes the money. Good luck correlating all that to iq.

the top .1 % can't be explained by iq compared to the top 1%, and they are the ones growing their share the fastest. It's also high turnover.

Murrays thesis seems clear that extreme stratification would happen even without automation. Technology isn't a big part of his argument.
Lou Midgley 08/20/2020: "...meat wad," and "cockroach" are pithy descriptions of human beings used by gemli? They were not fashioned by Professor Peterson.

LM 11/23/2018: one can explain away the soul of human beings...as...a Meat Unit, to use Professor Peterson's clever derogatory description of gemli's ideology.
_Analytics
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Analytics »

Gadianton wrote:Does Murray discuss outsourcing and automation, the two obvious contributors to declining middle class? How iq matters here varies and isn't really consistent with his claim given who is affected, in what order, and who makes the money. Good luck correlating all that to iq.

the top .1 % can't be explained by iq compared to the top 1%, and they are the ones growing their share the fastest. It's also high turnover.

Murrays thesis seems clear that extreme stratification would happen even without automation. Technology isn't a big part of his argument.

I don't recall if he discusses outsourcing and automation directly. In terms of his model, the question is what classes of jobs when grouped by required IQ are getting hit by those things the hardest?

He doesn't set out to explain the top 0.1%, and he isn't saying that IQ is the only thing that determines how much you make. What he is saying is that people of high IQ can compete in a lot of highly paid fields that people of low IQ cannot.

In terms of data, I happen to be in Lauden County VA right now in a super zip. There is a high concentration of high income people here. Do you think the IQ distribution here is the same as the one in, say a coal mining town in WV? How about the IQs of their kids? If there is a corelation, is it a coincidence?
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_Gadianton
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Re: Linchpin discovered: The Bell Curve goes into the ditch

Post by _Gadianton »

analytics wrote:I don't recall if he discusses outsourcing and automation directly. In terms of his model, the question is what classes of jobs when grouped by required IQ are getting hit by those things the hardest?


I don't think he mentions them because I don't think they are part of his model. In his summary, he refers to "economics" and "driving forces" behind isolating the elite, forces that are "growing stronger". Why would he just assume these forces will grow stronger and stronger rather than plateau or go back down, or any other alternative? Globalization can slow down; i came across estimates saying massive slow down in the next thirty years.

"hit by those things the hardest": It would appear the middle class is hit the hardest in relative terms, even though presumably the iqs are higher than the lower class. Outsourcing requires the job to be mobile. Note that for doctors, lawyers, accountants, dentists, in addition to iq, benefit from being in the service sector -- difficult to outsource -- and are also protected by barriers to entry -- licensing.

He doesn't set out to explain the top 0.1%, and he isn't saying that IQ is the only thing that determines how much you make. What he is saying is that people of high IQ can compete in a lot of highly paid fields that people of low IQ cannot.


Right -- at the time he wrote the book, he'd have to make a real prediction to bag that one. If all he is saying is what's in your second sentence, it's kind of a Hinckleyesque prophecy, "it's going to be a good year". It's a quibble if the .1% make 50% or 100% more and don't have higher iqs, but when the .1% have taken 40% of the entire pie, then we aren't in a meritocracy. The meritocracy is a band of upper-middle class folks who have huddled together to protect themselves the best they can from the rich taking everything.

In terms of data, I happen to be in Lauden County VA right now in a super zip. There is a high concentration of high income people here. Do you think the IQ distribution here is the same as the one in, say a coal mining town in WV? How about the IQs of their kids? If there is a corelation, is it a coincidence?


No, I think the distribution is higher, but I doubt the average iq is much higher than any other fast-growing HOA trap in SC, NV, AZ etc. One of the skimmed articles agreeing with assorted mating says it explains 10-16% of inequality. Out of that, more women are working anyway, then there's wealth transfer, better education, and finally, iq. I think it will require a lot of generations of in-breeding such that iq is the main explanation of success, too many to be viable.

One of the problems is the intuition. the Murray intuition is that these smart people seek each other out to get ahead. More likely the reality is they seek each other out to quit falling behind. People live in the same area because that's where they work. When lot's of people are making money, it leads to inflation. A co-worker of mine had a random job offer recently in Silicon Valley for 360k a year. After doing the math, he'd be worse off than he is now. I don't know anyone who works in that area who wants to stay there, but they feel trapped. things could change. Technology improvements make remote working more viable than it used to be, and with all the outsourcing going on, it's easier for companies to make exceptions for employees to do it.
Lou Midgley 08/20/2020: "...meat wad," and "cockroach" are pithy descriptions of human beings used by gemli? They were not fashioned by Professor Peterson.

LM 11/23/2018: one can explain away the soul of human beings...as...a Meat Unit, to use Professor Peterson's clever derogatory description of gemli's ideology.
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