DoubtingThomas wrote:Do you think it is possible to create simple microbial life in the lab? If so, when do you think it is going to happen?
Didn't Craig Venter just do that recently? It's now possible to assemble microbes from components of other microbes.
If instead you mean something more like a "primordial soup resulting in simple life" scenario, I have no idea. The difficulty here is that the process may have involved a lot of different factors and stops along the way. Bear in mind that the original happened in a planet-sized sample which housed a large variety of environments, over some long span of time. The likelihood that any quart jar, no matter how well the experiment is thought out, will generate results within a year or two doesn't seem great as it is separated in time, volume, and complexity from the original by many orders of magnitude. That's especially so if multiple stages involving different environments are involved. What if, for example, the chemistry required to jump-start metabolic processes has an origin in one environment, but doesn't encapsulate itself in anything like a cell wall until it enters another (or until some environmental parameter changes)? What if replication and metabolism arise differently and only become closely associated later?
People are certainly working on the puzzle. But not having final and definitive answers to something doesn't mean that oogity-boogity must hold the answer.
DoubtingThomas wrote:And do you think scientists have a good chance of finding life in Mars?
Not my particular area at all, but my guess would be that if there are organisms on Mars, they're sub-surface and that the size of the probes we send isn't likely to lend itself to a lot of excavation. But who knows? All one can do is look.