Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (RFM)

[_candygal]

My weekend comes as of tomorrow..so grateful that Consig has given me something to look forward to.

Someday..because you are loved and have an honest love for all people, I wish you could do interviews..with the pros and cons..like a testimony of a principle that has benefited a RS lady...with the same principle being a heavy burden on one that has had different experience..I know this sounds confusing...but it would open a new world of understand on real truth..and its affects.

[_consiglieri]

Thanks so much for your support, everybody.

Looks like part 3 won't be coming out for another week.

Still trying to get better physically!

Love you all!

[_consiglieri]

The Church in recent years decided to trim down the size of stakes as well. What resulted was a huge increase in stakes in 2016, as the Church stretched for 100 new stakes. So the growth rate of stakes in 2016 was 2.9% but the growth rate in wards and branches was .96%. I think we'll see the same for 2017 when it comes out. And in 2018 at least so far, it looks like stake creations have decreased. But remember Holland's claim of double digit stake creations each week?

It was interesting watching some of the faithful get a bit excited for 2016 growth because it represented "real growth" compared to the fake growth that occurred when growth rates were staggeringly high.

Dear Stem,

I am interested in your observation about growth rate of stakes in 2016 being 2.9% compared with growth rate of wards and branches being 1/3 of that amount, or .96%.

This makes sense that the church would be reducing the size of stakes in order to produce more of them on paper.

Sort of like selling a smaller candy bar for the same price in hopes nobody will notice.

Can you tell me where you got this information?

It may be podcast worthy!

Thanks!

Consiglieri

[_The Dude]

I really enjoyed the first two episodes. It got me thinking. If they started measuring growth as new members relative to active members instead of total members, they could generate a 2 or 3-fold increase in the growth rate quite suddenly. They are probably saving this monkey-move for the Last Days.

Well done!

Post part 3 soon!

[_Polygamy-Porter]

You're going to be excommunicated. Yes indeed.

They have to catch me first!

Stand for something, be a man true to his word, and resign.

[_Stem]

Dear Stem,

I am interested in your observation about growth rate of stakes in 2016 being 2.9% compared with growth rate of wards and branches being 1/3 of that amount, or .96%.

This makes sense that the church would be reducing the size of stakes in order to produce more of them on paper.

Sort of like selling a smaller candy bar for the same price in hopes nobody will notice.

Can you tell me where you got this information?

It may be podcast worthy!

Thanks!

Consiglieri

The first Sunday of 2016 our ward dissolved, we were all released from our callings and we merged with the ward south of us. That same day our stake went from 11 wards down to 8 as all the wards realigned, except one outlier, and all changed sizes. We went from a smallish ward, fitting with extra space in the chapel on Sundays, to something a bit bigger--we drifted into the overflow and then opened up the cultural hall to set up a few more rows. The Stake conference before they showed us numbers and why the change was being made. They had to get our number of ward members per M priesthood holder to some particular range to be considered a ward, they said. They also said they played with the boundaries a bit to get each unit into that range (I guess that was easy to do because they showed us the boundaries and how they were able to move lines and the data would indicate how many priesthood holders and how many members fit within those boundaries). The indication also was that the Church as a whole wanted less units per stake yet more priesthood holders per ward, but I don't' know how much that really played into it for us or if that was just excuse making for the seemingly dying wards in our area.

Anyway, near the end of 2016 the LDS Church growth site (run by Martinich) boasted:

Stake growth is a robust indicator of "real growth" in the LDS Church as stakes require certain minimum requirements to operate (e.g. number of active, full-tithe paying Melchizedek Priesthood holders [AFTPMP]; number of congregations; ratio of AFTPMP to general church membership; etc).

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/201 ... nting.html

This was used on the other site to battle against the sinking growth rate of the Church on MD&D back then. So, participators there, as I recall, started spouting off on the Church having "real growth" now as opposed to the not real growth, or fake growth it had previously experienced. Their point, they would say, was proven because, at the end of 2016, the Church had organized 100 new stakes (Reached 3 times in the 90s 95-97* and 4 times in a row from 78-81). I plotted the stake numbers over the decades and saw a couple of spikes reach every decade and a half or so.

I was pretty annoyed because on the one hand I was getting information from my stake that all stakes were shrinking the number of units, on purpose, and then on the other hand we have this internet expert telling us the Church is now experiencing "real growth" because stakes were being created so fast.
Data taken from the annual statistical report:

United States
Year Stakes Units Membership GRStakes GRUnits GRMember
1999 1,291 11,315 5,113,409
2000 1,310 11,562 5,208,827 1.47% 2.18% 1.87%
2001 1,328 11,731 5,310,598 1.37% 1.46% 1.95%
2002 1,336 11,879 5,410,544 0.60% 1.26% 1.88%
2003 1,353 12,112 5,503,192 1.27% 1.96% 1.71%
2004 1,380 12,463 5,599,177 2.00% 2.90% 1.74%
2005 1,390 12,753 5,690,672 0.72% 2.33% 1.63%
2006 1,410 13,010 5,779,316 1.44% 2.02% 1.56%
2007 1,422 13,201 5,873,408 0.85% 1.47% 1.63%
2008 1,438 13,363 5,974,041 1.13% 1.23% 1.71%
2009 1,451 13,475 6,058,907 0.90% 0.84% 1.42%
2010 1,465 13,601 6,144,582 0.96% 0.94% 1.41%
2011 1,485 13,628 6,229,233 1.37% 0.20% 1.38%
2012 1,497 13,742 6,321,416 0.81% 0.84% 1.48%
2013 1,510 13,866 6,398,889 0.87% 0.90% 1.23%
2014 1,535 14,018 6,466,267 1.66% 1.10% 1.05%
2015 1,552 14,160 6,531,656 1.11% 1.01% 1.01%
2016 1,592 14,225 6,592,195 2.58% 0.46% 0.93%

The data fit what the local leaders were telling me--the Church is creating smaller stakes, while as a result perhaps making the wards bigger. Stake growth increased in the US at an accelerated rate than membership and unit growth. All things being equal that would be impossible. So a couple of things seemed to change:

1. Stakes included less units. I can't find an official pronouncement but it appears stakes, particularly in the US were organized with less units, and a decision was made that a stake ought to have less units.
2. Wards were to include more members, in the US. At some point a decision seems to have been made that wards were to have more people, in order to build less buildings. This suggests stakes would have less units as well.

Several other LDS statistical indicators that strongly correlate to stake growth did not accelerate in 2016. For example, the Church reported a net increase of approximately 200 official congregations (i.e. wards and branches) during 2017. As the average stake includes seven congregations, the number of stakes would have increased by only 29 if the Church organized new stakes in direct proportion to congregational growth rates for the year.

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=vie ... 1&cat_id=8

As of late December, the Church in the United States reported no net change for the number of congregations for the entire year (184 new wards/branches organized, 184 wards/branches discontinued). To contrast, the Church in the United States has historically reported a net increase of 100-150 new wards/branches a year during the past decade. The approximate number of new congregations organized in the United States per year totaled 268 in 2016, 233 in 2015, 224 in 2014, and 191 in 2013, whereas the approximate number of congregations discontinued in the United States per year totaled 203 in 2016, 91 in 2015, 72 in 2014, and 67 in 2013. Thus, the number of discontinued wards/branches in 2017 numbers among the highest reported by the Church in recent memory, and the number of new wards/branches organized numbered among the lowest reported during the past five years. Declining rates in congregational growth in the United States appear primarily attributed to declining membership growth rates. However, emphasis on the organization of larger wards in some areas of the country in order to better maximize LDS meetinghouses and provide more socialization opportunities for youth has appeared partially responsible for these changes. There was a net increase of 44 wards and a net decrease of 43 branches – the lowest increase in the number of wards in the United States in several decades. States that reported the largest decreases in the number of wards/branches in 2017 included California (-41), Washington (-7), Colorado (-5), New Mexico (-5), Iowa (-4), and Alaska (-4). States that reported the largest increases in the number of wards/branches in 2017 included Utah (+41), Texas (+11), Arizona (+5), Idaho (+3), Nevada (+3), and Wyoming (+3). It is interesting to note that nearly all states with the most significant increases and decreases in the number of congregations were located in the western United States.

Membership growth rates have also continued to decelerate. Annual membership growth rates decreased to the lowest level reported by the Church since 1988 during 2016 (0.9%). To contrast, the Church generally reported annual membership growth rates of approximately 2.0% in the late 1990s and early 2000s, approximately 1.5% between the mid-2000s and early 2010s, and approximately 1.0% in the mid-2010s. Decreases in the number of convert baptisms due to the increasing influence of secularism on society, ineffective or inconsistent proselytism approaches, higher mortality rates among Latter-day Saints due to an aging LDS population, and reduced birth rates have all appeared to contribute to this noticeable decline in American membership growth during the twenty-first century.

Notwithstanding these difficulties, the creation of new stakes in the United States during 2017 occurred at a more rapid rate than most years within the past 15 years. The Church reported the organization of 25 new stakes in 2017, whereas there were 45 new stakes organized in 2016. To contrast, the Church has generally reported 15-20 new stakes for most years during the past 15 years. During 2017, the average number of wards per stake in the United States slightly declined from 7.76 to 7.67 due to stake growth rates outpacing congregational growth rates.

The Church has also emphasized better utilization of church meetinghouses in the United States and other areas of the world. As a result, the Church has encouraged larger numbers of congregations to share the same meetinghouse and for congregations to have larger numbers of active members in order to conserve meetinghouse maintenance and building costs. For example, in some areas the Church is striving for sacrament meeting attendance to comprise at least 75% of seating available in a meetinghouse. Consequently, the Church has combined smaller congregations in order to reduce the number of meetinghouses needed.

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/201 ... antly.html

Several other indicators of LDS growth that strongly correlate to stake growth did not accelerate in 2016. For example, the Church reported a net increase of approximately 300 official congregations (i.e. wards and branches) during 2016. As the average stake includes seven congregations, the number of stakes would have increased by only 43 if the ratio of congregations per stake were maintained from 2015. Stake growth outpacing congregational growth in 2016 appears partially attributed to emphasis in North America regarding the organization of stakes with fewer wards and branches, particularly in Arizona and Texas.

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=vie ... 4&cat_id=8

Slowing membership growth rates in the United States have likely affected congregational growth rates. The Church in 2015 reported its slowest annual membership growth rate since 1989 at a mere 1.0%. To contrast, the Church has generally reported annual membership growth rates in the United States that range between 1.5-2.0% since 1999.

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=vie ... 4&cat_id=8

There has been a net increase of 40 stakes in the United States in 2016 – one of the largest increases in the number of stakes ever reported. This increase in stake growth appears primarily attributed to the organization of stakes with fewer congregations in Arizona and Texas.

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=vie ... 4&cat_id=8

[_moinmoin]

1. Stakes included less units. I can't find an official pronouncement but it appears stakes, particularly in the US were organized with less units, and a decision was made that a stake ought to have less units.
2. Wards were to include more members, in the US. At some point a decision seems to have been made that wards were to have more people, in order to build less buildings. This suggests stakes would have less units as well.

This doesn't fit with what we have been told in the Southwest Area (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma. Maybe also SoCal?). I had a PowerPoint from the Area Presidency, but I think I deleted it (I can't find it). It had to do with projections, goals, etc. for the area. The focus is on stakes and wards being of "optimal unit size," and that was defined as 350 members in a ward and smaller-than-normal stakes. This is contingent, of course, on there being enough Melchizedek priesthood holders and tithe payers; if a ward of 350 was dramatically short on either or both, then ward sizes would remain larger. The goal is for there to be more stakes of smaller size, comprised of these "optimal" small wards.

[_Stem]

This doesn't fit with what we have been told in the Southwest Area (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma. Maybe also SoCal?). I had a PowerPoint from the Area Presidency, but I think I deleted it (I can't find it). It had to do with projections, goals, etc. for the area. The focus is on stakes and wards being of "optimal unit size," and that was defined as 350 members in a ward and smaller-than-normal stakes. This is contingent, of course, on there being enough Melchizedek priesthood holders and tithe payers; if a ward of 350 was dramatically short on either or both, then ward sizes would remain larger. The goal is for there to be more stakes of smaller size, comprised of these "optimal" small wards.

I think Martinich calls that out as I quoted here:

Stake growth outpacing congregational growth in 2016 appears partially attributed to emphasis in North America regarding the organization of stakes with fewer wards and branches, particularly in Arizona and Texas.

http://cumorah.com/index.php?target=vie ... 4&cat_id=8

he mentions this twice in the same article. It seems to me he's pointing out exceptions to the rules from both Arizona and Texas.

[_The Dude]

Where is that part three, Consiglieri? I'm starting to doubt my doubts and think the church could be true after all. Only part three can save me.

[_consiglieri]

Where is that part three, Consiglieri? I'm starting to doubt my doubts and think the church could be true after all. Only part three can save me.

LOL!

I have it half done and now the world goes crazy with the Bishop allegations!