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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:41 pm 
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Stem wrote:
Craig Paxton wrote:

Can you elaborate on this. Are you saying that several of your son's friend went and have already come home early? What used to be an anomaly now seems to be common practice.


True. I'd say 20 some odd LDS friends, from his life, went on missions. Probably 7 or 8 came home already (early). So lets' say 35% came home early, of probably about %50 percent LDS friends who went. Most of his friends and his closest friends weren't LDS at all, or were and decided not to go in the first place. He is LDS and was not interested.
These are estimations of course.

I heard an estimated figure of around 10% come home early. I would like to shore that number up but I doubt we will ever see anything official.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
Interesting, but I’m not sure you don’t have to account for any changes in age distribution within the church. In other words, has the percentage of young people changed.

Something else to look at is service missionaries. My understanding is that some young folks who might not be able to serve full-time missions are allowed to do service missions instead. I think it’s a fairly recent trend. If so, it’s certainly possible that some of the men and women who would have served proselyting missions a decade ago now are assigned service missions. That would lower the expected total of missionaries.

ETA: https://www.LDS.org/callings/missionary ... /?lang=eng

Good points I agree with them all. There are certainly more factors to consider.


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:10 pm 
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I have a question wrote:
Who’s producing the forecasts that Nielson and Holland are reading, Brother Hans Christian Anderson?


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:29 pm 
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Everybody Wang Chung wrote:
At the April 2015 General Conference it was reported that there were 85,147 full time missionaries.

At the April 2016 General Conference it was reported that there were 74,079 full time missionaries.

At the April 2017 General Conference it was reported that there were 70,946 full time missionaires.

We are now below 67,000:

Quote:
Today, the church has nearly 67,000 missionaries, the release said, serving in 421 missions around the globe.

https://www.sltrib.com/religion/local/2 ... -new-look/

When will this bottom out? Are we just going to see declines every single year until the number of missionaries reaches 0? Strange.

There's been a sudden rebound:
Quote:
The Church has about 68,000 missionaries serving in 421 missions around the globe.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... ostle.html

Quote:
Elder Nielson, General Authority Seventy and executive director of the Missionary Department, delivered his address at the Provo Missionary Training Center during the opening session of the annual seminar for newly called missionary training center presidents and visitors’ center directors and companions. . . .

In 2006, there were just over 50,000 missionaries serving in the Church. In 2012, when President Thomas S. Monson announced a lowering in the ages for young men and young women to serve missions, a huge surge happened, culminating in a total of almost 90,000 missionaries.

“That surge has ended, and now we’re at a point where we have about 68,000 missionaries, and we think we’re going to stay around 68,000 to 70,000 missionaries moving forward.”

He displayed a chart with graph lines showing convert — baptism rates through 2016.

“What has happened over time is our baptisms have remained quite consistent, and we haven’t been able to move the needle much,” he said. “We’re trying to figure out how to find more people to teach.”

During the surge, the baptisms per missionary did not go up, he noted.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... ption.html


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:46 pm 
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Yeah, Stem. Too many factors and not enough data.

I think that the numbers may simply reflect fallout from the surge. I think the surge had at least three components. The first was the simple effect of moving the window. That’s just math, and it should have already come and gone.

The second is an increased pool of potential missionaries. For the men, that represents guys that changed their minds about missionary service (including changing their minds about the church between ages 18 and 19. For women it, it represents those who changed their minds about missionary service or the church and those who got married or engaged between ages 19 and 21. This part of the surge, all things being equal, would result in a permanent increase.

The third is an enthusiasm surge, which would mean that a greater percentage of the eligible pool actually goes on a mission. Given the hype around the age change, I think we could expect this type of increase. It may well be that this part of the surge was not sustained, and that the longer tail of the decline is due to a return toward pre-surge participation rates.

TL\DR After the age change was announced, we should have expected a couple of years of increased numbers leading to a peak, then a couple of years of similar decline, then a period of slight decline or leveling, with a return to a higher total and a rate of growth sinilar to that before the surge.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:50 pm 
God
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Another piece of data we’re missing is how much the total numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from numbers stated at different times of the year. I’d use the totals announced each April.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:52 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
Another piece of data we’re missing is how much the total numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from numbers stated at different times of the year. I’d use the totals announced each April.


I agree with this, but want to split out the senior missionary number.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:04 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
Another piece of data we’re missing is how much the total numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from numbers stated at different times of the year. I’d use the totals announced each April.


I think that's the best bet. Numbers announced in April are the previous year's EOY total. My guess is this announced under 67,000 is the EOY 2017 that'll be announced in April, so it's good to compare to the number that was announced in April 2017 for end of year 2016.

I wondered the fluctuation over the course of a year too. But its shown to be pretty consistent. EOY 2015 put the number at 74,000. The next I heard the number in September 2016 was just under 72,000. Then EOY 2016 showed 70,000. then this past June we heard 68,500 and now we're at just under 67,000.

I'd be surprised though if the number didn't fluctuate over the course of the year.


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:22 pm 
God
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Stem wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:
Another piece of data we’re missing is how much the total numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from numbers stated at different times of the year. I’d use the totals announced each April.


I think that's the best bet. Numbers announced in April are the previous year's EOY total. My guess is this announced under 67,000 is the EOY 2017 that'll be announced in April, so it's good to compare to the number that was announced in April 2017 for end of year 2016.

I wondered the fluctuation over the course of a year too. But its shown to be pretty consistent. EOY 2015 put the number at 74,000. The next I heard the number in September 2016 was just under 72,000. Then EOY 2016 showed 70,000. then this past June we heard 68,500 and now we're at just under 67,000.

I'd be surprised though if the number didn't fluctuate over the course of the year.


It might be that the 68k to 70k range mentioned in the article represents the range of fluctuation.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:22 pm 
God
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I have a question wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:
Another piece of data we’re missing is how much the total numbers fluctuate over the course of a year. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from numbers stated at different times of the year. I’d use the totals announced each April.


I agree with this, but want to split out the senior missionary number.


Yeah, me too.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:15 am 
God
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Philo Sofee wrote:
And under the shadow of the Lord's Apocalrock Mountain, Jeffrey Holland claimed there would be over 100,000 missionaries very soon......very, very soon. Oh so soon, the work hastens, the Lord almost twitters in glee and delight and anticipation of being able to come back again so he can set things right. Oh it's so soon, and we need all those 100,000 missionaries, oh how glorious it will be, oh the delight of seeing the mighty numbers and power in the priesthood with those 100,000 missionaries. It grows, this church so frickin grows! 100,000 is nuthing, that is just the bare bones beginning. The force is with us, 100,000 is easy peasy for the Lord to get out there doing his work. Yeah though I walk through the Mall of City Creek I shall spare no check less than 100,000 for symbolizing the glorious greatness of the majestic mighty force of Mormonism in it's 100,000 missionaries.

Well, you get the point.......


So does this mean we are not growing by ten stakes a week?


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:24 am 
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Here’s the full effect of the age reduction bubble on full time missionary numbers:

2011 - 55,410
2012 - 58,990
2013 - 83,035
2014 - 85,147
2015 - 74,079
2016 - 70,946
2017 - 67,000?

Some observations:
The bubble effect lasted through 2013 and 2014 and has steadily subsided since then.
There is a steady decline in full time missionary numbers since 2014 that now cannot be explained by the settling effect of the age reduction bubble.
I cannot identify any lasting positive effect of reducing the age at which young people can serve missions.

A separation of senior missionary couples from these numbers would be beneficial for analysis.

What was Jeff looking at when he said in 2015, that they were projecting growth up to 100,000 by 2019?
How, in 2018 can Nelson state there’s less than 67,000 full time missionaries and the head of the missionary programme state there’s 68,000 when they are looking at the same numbers?
On what basis is Nielson confident the number of full time missionaries will settle at 68-70,000 going forward regardless of membership growth?

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:55 am 
God
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I have a question wrote:
Here’s the full effect of the age reduction bubble on full time missionary numbers:

2011 - 55,410
2012 - 58,990
2013 - 83,035
2014 - 85,147
2015 - 74,079
2016 - 70,946
2017 - 67,000?

Some observations:
The bubble effect lasted through 2013 and 2014 and has steadily subsided since then.
There is a steady decline in full time missionary numbers since 2014 that now cannot be explained by the settling effect of the age reduction bubble.
I cannot identify any lasting positive effect of reducing the age at which young people can serve missions.

A separation of senior missionary couples from these numbers would be beneficial for analysis.

What was Jeff looking at when he said in 2015, that they were projecting growth up to 100,000 by 2019?
How, in 2018 can Nelson state there’s less than 67,000 full time missionaries and the head of the missionary programme state there’s 68,000 when they are looking at the same numbers?
On what basis is Nielson confident the number of full time missionaries will settle at 68-70,000 going forward regardless of membership growth?



the sad reality about this information is that Chapel Mormon's are oblivious to these number year over year and buy into the over arching tripe that the church is growing exponentially like a stone cut from a mountain without hands...filling the entire earth...which is utter ____

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:11 am 
God

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Let’s remember history...
Quote:
"Two years ago President Monson made an appeal for more missionaries," Elder Holland said. "Since that time we have seen a rather spectacular increase across the board. We're up 6 percent for our young elders, 12 percent for sisters and 18 percent for couples."

But, he added, "we don't have any guess" on how many additional missionaries will be entering the mission field as a result of the age changes.

"We just know we're going to have to handle more," Elder Holland said. And handling more "will require some changes to how we administer the missionary program."

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... rcent.html

So that’s Jeff Holland of the Q12 admitting that did not have a clue what the impact in numbers would be, nor did they prepare the MTC’s that an influx was coming.

Then, a year later...
Quote:
“I have never seen a generation respond to a prophet of God the way this generation has,” said Elder David F. Evans of the First Quorum of the Seventy, who also serves as executive director of the LDS Church Missionary Department. “Nothing generationally has ever happened, that I’m aware of, like what happened as this generation heard and then responded to the words and invitation of President Monson.”

The numbers, Elder Evans said during an exclusive Deseret News interview, bear that out.

“We had 58,000 missionaries at the time of the announcement,” he said. “We have just over 80,000 missionaries in the field now.”

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... ement.html

Quote:
“What has happened is almost exactly what we thought would happen,” Elder Evans said.


So Evans, if what happened was exactly what you expected, why did Jeff say he didn’t know what was going to happen? Why weren’t the MTC’s expanded until after the surge had subsided?

The people running the missionary programme of the Church, back then and now...are not competent.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:18 am 
God

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Quote:
With the worldwide LDS missionary force surging due to the recent reduction in age for missionary service, church leaders on Sunday spoke via satellite to a global gathering of missionaries and local church officers and members, presenting innovative approaches to missionary work, including the use of the Internet by full-time missionaries in their work and the opening of local meetinghouses to guided tours.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... dcast.html

Quote:
“During less-productive times of the day — chiefly in the mornings — missionaries will use computers in meetinghouses and other church facilities to contact investigators and members, work with local priesthood leaders and missionary leaders, receive and contact referrals, follow up on commitments, confirm appointments and teach principles from [the missionary guide] “Preach My Gospel” using Mormon.org, Facebook, blogs, email and text messages,” Elder Perry said.

He added that Internet access and use of digital devices by missionaries will be introduced in phases over the next several months and into next year.


That was the innovation back in 2013 - computers and referrals.
Which is the same innovation Nielson is claiming is coming in 2018.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:03 pm 
God

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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Could you imagine being 18-years-old and this is what you're dealing with since everyone has access to the Internet:

Image

On top of that, how many 18-year-olds already know that stuff, and have, in fact, already mentally check out of the Church?

- Doc



laughing silly 0n that cartoon!


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:59 pm 
Founder & Visionary
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I have a question wrote:
Some observations:
The bubble effect lasted through 2013 and 2014 and has steadily subsided since then.
There is a steady decline in full time missionary numbers since 2014 that now cannot be explained by the settling effect of the age reduction bubble.
I cannot identify any lasting positive effect of reducing the age at which young people can serve missions.

A separation of senior missionary couples from these numbers would be beneficial for analysis.

What was Jeff looking at when he said in 2015, that they were projecting growth up to 100,000 by 2019?
How, in 2018 can Nelson state there’s less than 67,000 full time missionaries and the head of the missionary programme state there’s 68,000 when they are looking at the same numbers?
On what basis is Nielson confident the number of full time missionaries will settle at 68-70,000 going forward regardless of membership growth?

[MODERATOR NOTE: I have a question, please click here, read the lesson about hard returns, then integrate and implement it into your life with 100% fidelity until the end of your natural life.

Currently, you and subgenius are the worst offenders in this regard (nothing personal, of course), followed closely by Philo Sofee. Thank you.]

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:04 pm 
God

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Dr. Shades wrote:
I have a question wrote:
Some observations:
The bubble effect lasted through 2013 and 2014 and has steadily subsided since then.
There is a steady decline in full time missionary numbers since 2014 that now cannot be explained by the settling effect of the age reduction bubble.
I cannot identify any lasting positive effect of reducing the age at which young people can serve missions.

A separation of senior missionary couples from these numbers would be beneficial for analysis.

What was Jeff looking at when he said in 2015, that they were projecting growth up to 100,000 by 2019?
How, in 2018 can Nelson state there’s less than 67,000 full time missionaries and the head of the missionary programme state there’s 68,000 when they are looking at the same numbers?
On what basis is Nielson confident the number of full time missionaries will settle at 68-70,000 going forward regardless of membership growth?

[MODERATOR NOTE: I have a question, please click here, read the lesson about hard returns, then integrate and implement it into your life with 100% fidelity until the end of your natural life.

Currently, you and subgenius are the worst offenders in this regard (nothing personal, of course), followed closely by Philo Sofee. Thank you.]


It’s deliberate.

I note that you seem to have the time to spot matters of perceived grammatical offence, which have no detrimental effect on anybody except you. But you don’t deal, I mean in any way, with Tobin Syndrome and derailing that utterly destroys threads, because you’re too busy.

Perhaps you should re-examine your sense of priority...

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pm 
Founder & Visionary
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I have a question wrote:
It’s deliberate.

I respectfully request that you resist the temptation to be deliberate.

Quote:
I note that you seem to have the time to spot matters of perceived grammatical offence, which have no detrimental effect on anybody except you. But you don’t deal, I mean in any way, with Tobin Syndrome and derailing that utterly destroys threads, because you’re too busy.

That's because the former is far quicker and easier to deal with than the latter. But don't worry. It'll happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:40 pm 
God
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Dr. Shades wrote:
I have a question wrote:
Some observations:
The bubble effect lasted through 2013 and 2014 and has steadily subsided since then.
There is a steady decline in full time missionary numbers since 2014 that now cannot be explained by the settling effect of the age reduction bubble.
I cannot identify any lasting positive effect of reducing the age at which young people can serve missions.

A separation of senior missionary couples from these numbers would be beneficial for analysis.

What was Jeff looking at when he said in 2015, that they were projecting growth up to 100,000 by 2019?
How, in 2018 can Nelson state there’s less than 67,000 full time missionaries and the head of the missionary programme state there’s 68,000 when they are looking at the same numbers?
On what basis is Nielson confident the number of full time missionaries will settle at 68-70,000 going forward regardless of membership growth?

[MODERATOR NOTE: I have a question, please click here, read the lesson about hard returns, then integrate and implement it into your life with 100% fidelity until the end of your natural life.

Currently, you and subgenius are the worst offenders in this regard (nothing personal, of course), followed closely by Philo Sofee. Thank you.]



I was a straight A English student back in the day...and I'm trying to wrap my head around this directive. Is it for esthetics? For compression of information? To lighten extra work load created in administering the board for admin's? I also note that you have recently asked that I use a "." at the end of each of my paragraphs...but I'm just trying to understand. <----note period.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:15 pm 
God

Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:01 am
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I have a question wrote:
Quote:
With the worldwide LDS missionary force surging due to the recent reduction in age for missionary service, church leaders on Sunday spoke via satellite to a global gathering of missionaries and local church officers and members, presenting innovative approaches to missionary work, including the use of the Internet by full-time missionaries in their work and the opening of local meetinghouses to guided tours.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... dcast.html

Quote:
“During less-productive times of the day — chiefly in the mornings — missionaries will use computers in meetinghouses and other church facilities to contact investigators and members, work with local priesthood leaders and missionary leaders, receive and contact referrals, follow up on commitments, confirm appointments and teach principles from [the missionary guide] “Preach My Gospel” using Mormon.org, Facebook, blogs, email and text messages,” Elder Perry said.

He added that Internet access and use of digital devices by missionaries will be introduced in phases over the next several months and into next year.


That was the innovation back in 2013 - computers and referrals.
Which is the same innovation Nielson is claiming is coming in 2018.


Bump to get the thread past Shades interjection.

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