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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:05 am 
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Scott Lloyd - January 2017

Quote:
What's not the truth? That I have a time clock running for Elder Holland's prediction? I'm telling you I do and that i have had since March 5, 2015. It will expire in 2019, and I pledge to bring it up then.

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/684 ... 1209687668

Poor Scott.

Quote:
Prior to the announcement of the age changes, the number of LDS missionaries serving was 58,500. According to this page on Mormon Newsroom, the number at year end 2016 stood at 74,079, for a net, post-surge increase of about 15,500. So the number did not fall back down to pre-2012 levels, but rather, has had a respectable net increase, and this without having to radically redefine missionary work, as Mike suggested.

God be thanked for revelatory direction through a living prophet and for the dedication of our young men and women in the Church!

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/684 ... on-expire/
(Note, at the time Scott claimed 74,079 it was actually 70,946 - he was using 12 month out of date figures)

Poor, poor Scott...I wonder if he tires of being wrong...

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Last edited by I have a question on Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:28 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:07 am 
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Jeffrey R. Holland - March 2015 wrote:
We're projecting out probably within four years, the base-line number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000.


Can't you just feel the burning of the holy ghost inside you bearing testimony that the apostle of god is inspired and talking by the spirit?

:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:16 am 
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I have a question wrote:
59,800 missionary calls a year = 120,000 serving missionaries (they serve for two years).
The claim of 1,150 calls is not a weekly average. The article itself disproves it. Do they not fact check any of this faith promotion blurb?


You are not allowing for returning missionaries in your calculation. You are incorrectly assuming that missionaries are called but never come home.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:29 am 
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Craig Paxton wrote:
I have a question wrote:
59,800 missionary calls a year = 120,000 serving missionaries (they serve for two years).
The claim of 1,150 calls is not a weekly average. The article itself disproves it. Do they not fact check any of this faith promotion blurb?


You are not allowing for returning missionaries in your calculation. You are incorrectly assuming that missionaries are called but never come home.


Hmmm....let me think this through, I admit to being slightly brain dead today....

This year the missionary number is split (I’m making an even split assumption here) 50% of missionaries serving their first year, plus 50% who are serving their second year. The 50% serving their first year replace the 50% who would be serving their third year but who have returned home. So that’s always a rolling two years worth of ‘calls’ in service.

The 1,150 number isn’t clarified in the article as being relating to one weeks worth of calls.

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Last edited by I have a question on Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:35 am, edited 9 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:30 am 
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I went on a mission from 91-93 in Spain, and there was very little access to critical information about the church. You saw an occasional pamphlet from the Testigos (JW's) or an evangelical group, but the information was so over the top, it was easy to discount and brush aside. So even without that information, it was a very hard sell to life long Catholics living in an island culture. They would hate the catholic church with all their might, but never ever change from it. Mission wide we were only doing 10-15 baptisms per month. I had 2 my whole mission (one young man who eventually served a mission but then left the church years later because he was gay, and a sister of an existing member who I believe remains active).

I can't imagine how hard it is today to tract with all that information available at the touch of of button instantly.

Some anecdotal information regarding the change to 18: My nephew has been getting ready to go for the last 6 months. He graduated from high school last spring and it was thought he would go this last fall. But all of a sudden, he is enrolled and going to BYU-Idaho in April. I asked my sister about it and her response was that while everything was fine for him to go (worthiness wise), the Bishop counseled him to wait a little while and go away to school because he had never been away from home for any length of time. Hmmm. :confused: If true, I would think that would be a departure from the spirit and intent of the program. I mean what 18 year old would have any real experience being away from home for any extended amount of time? I would think very few. I would also think the church knows this and doesn't care whether they have been away from home or not. So it strikes me odd that the Bishop would counsel him to postpone. It could also just be a cover for some worthiness issue (he does have a non Mormon girlfriend) or belief issue. I don't know. He is a good kid, but has never struck me as a spiritual go-getter by any means, so maybe he doesn't really want to go, and the Bishop is helping him deal with it. I think most kids don't really want to go if given a choice. I was as TBM as they came at that age, but I would have stayed home if there was some viable out that would have not shamed my family.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:32 am 
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Craig Paxton wrote:
I have a question wrote:
59,800 missionary calls a year = 120,000 serving missionaries (they serve for two years).
The claim of 1,150 calls is not a weekly average. The article itself disproves it. Do they not fact check any of this faith promotion blurb?


You are not allowing for returning missionaries in your calculation. You are incorrectly assuming that missionaries are called but never come home.


Yeah man, I too was scratching my head with the above calculation.

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"I do admit Joseph Smith faked the facsimile translation. . . . Facsimiles................lies"


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:42 am 
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I have a question wrote:
Hmmm....let me think this through, I admit to being slightly brain dead today....

This year the missionary number is split (I’m making an even split assumption here) 50% of missionaries serving their first year, plus 50% who are serving their second year. The 50% serving their first year replace the 50% who would be serving their third year but who have returned home. So that’s always a rolling two years worth of ‘calls’ in service.

The 1,150 number isn’t clarified in the article as being relating to one weeks worth of calls.


Plus for the missionary serving numbers to trend down...more missionaries need to be returning home than going out.

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Last edited by Craig Paxton on Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:46 am 
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Everybody Wang Chung wrote:
At the April 2015 General Conference it was reported that there were 85,147 full time missionaries.

At the April 2016 General Conference it was reported that there were 74,079 full time missionaries.

At the April 2017 General Conference it was reported that there were 70,946 full time missionaires.

We are now below 67,000:

Quote:
Today, the church has nearly 67,000 missionaries, the release said, serving in 421 missions around the globe.

https://www.sltrib.com/religion/local/2 ... -new-look/

When will this bottom out? Are we just going to see declines every single year until the number of missionaries reaches 0? Strange.


Earlier in 2017 Deseret News reported there were 62,000 missionaries out there.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... risks.html


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:50 am 
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Stem wrote:
Earlier in 2017 Deseret News reported there were 62,000 missionaries out there.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... risks.html



Ouch...if you use the DesNews numbers instead of the Trib's numbers that would represent over a 12% collapse in missionary numbers serving within a years time...this could be worse then anyone expected...especially Holland.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:53 am 
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Craig Paxton wrote:
Stem wrote:
Earlier in 2017 Deseret News reported there were 62,000 missionaries out there.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... risks.html



Ouch...if you use the DesNews numbers instead of the Trib's numbers that would represent over a 12% collapse in missionary numbers serving within a years time...this could be worse then anyone expected...especially Holland.


From the article;
Quote:
The LDS Church currently counts some 68,500 current full-time missionaries — however, about 6,500 missionaries are “senior” missionaries — older individuals and couples who are serving and who will not participate in the survey.


I wonder what the comparison is in terms of number of seniors - between the pre surge 58,500 and the more recent declaration of 67,000.

I’m wondering how bad the decline really is, once you strip out the seniors...

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:55 am 
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Craig Paxton wrote:
Stem wrote:
Earlier in 2017 Deseret News reported there were 62,000 missionaries out there.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865 ... risks.html



Ouch...if you use the DesNews numbers instead of the Trib's numbers that would represent over a 12% collapse in missionary numbers serving within a years time...this could be worse then anyone expected...especially Holland.


If it fluctuates up and down 10,000 in a years time, that's pretty interesting. I'd guess more kids went home early 2017 and the rise back up from graduates up to 67,000 now, wasn't steep enough to get it back to end of 2016 numbers. It seems like less kids are deciding to go.

I find it interesting because my oldest graduated HS this past year. he wasn't going to go, but a bunch of his friends went, and some stayed home, like more than when I was going out, type of figure. But, what was odd and didn't happen so much with friends I had back 2o something years ago, a number of his friends that left, and back home now.


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:57 am 
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I have a question wrote:

From the article;
Quote:
The LDS Church currently counts some 68,500 current full-time missionaries — however, about 6,500 missionaries are “senior” missionaries — older individuals and couples who are serving and who will not participate in the survey.


quote]

Oh that's right. I forgot about that. As I recall this note was added after the article first came out.


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:29 am 
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Craig Paxton wrote:
I have a question wrote:
59,800 missionary calls a year = 120,000 serving missionaries (they serve for two years).
The claim of 1,150 calls is not a weekly average. The article itself disproves it. Do they not fact check any of this faith promotion blurb?


You are not allowing for returning missionaries in your calculation. You are incorrectly assuming that missionaries are called but never come home.


I think IHAQ is right. Assume 70K missionaries. How many of those would come home in a year? Half. That’s 35K. 1150 calls per week would result in about 60K new missionaries. The total would increase unti it reached 120K. Half would come home in a year, which is 60K. Half would go out — 60K. Equilibrium.

The 1150 cannot be a weekly average.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:40 am 
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Stem wrote:
I find it interesting because my oldest graduated HS this past year. he wasn't going to go, but a bunch of his friends went, and some stayed home, like more than when I was going out, type of figure. But, what was odd and didn't happen so much with friends I had back 2o something years ago, a number of his friends that left, and back home now.



Can you elaborate on this. Are you saying that several of your son's friend went and have already come home early? What used to be an anomaly now seems to be common practice.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Craig Paxton wrote:

Can you elaborate on this. Are you saying that several of your son's friend went and have already come home early? What used to be an anomaly now seems to be common practice.


True. I'd say 20 some odd LDS friends, from his life, went on missions. Probably 7 or 8 came home already (early). So lets' say 35% came home early, of probably about %50 percent LDS friends who went. Most of his friends and his closest friends weren't LDS at all, or were and decided not to go in the first place. He is LDS and was not interested.
These are estimations of course.


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:54 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:

I think IHAQ is right. Assume 70K missionaries. How many of those would come home in a year? Half. That’s 35K. 1150 calls per week would result in about 60K new missionaries. The total would increase unti it reached 120K. Half would come home in a year, which is 60K. Half would go out — 60K. Equilibrium.

The 1150 cannot be a weekly average.


That's what I was thinking, too. But I wonder how many of those calls are to people serving 6 months, 1 year, 1.5 years, etc.? A kid I know went on a 2-transfer mission close to home to see if he could handle it. He did, and then he got called to a mission a few states away. Just one example, but does this count as 2 calls? If it is the case, then I can see 1150 being average if you count all the short missions and reassignments (which, granted, doesn't really effect the number of church salespeople out working in the field).

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:13 pm 
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CameronMO wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:

I think IHAQ is right. Assume 70K missionaries. How many of those would come home in a year? Half. That’s 35K. 1150 calls per week would result in about 60K new missionaries. The total would increase unti it reached 120K. Half would come home in a year, which is 60K. Half would go out — 60K. Equilibrium.

The 1150 cannot be a weekly average.


That's what I was thinking, too. But I wonder how many of those calls are to people serving 6 months, 1 year, 1.5 years, etc.? A kid I know went on a 2-transfer mission close to home to see if he could handle it. He did, and then he got called to a mission a few states away. Just one example, but does this count as 2 calls? If it is the case, then I can see 1150 being average if you count all the short missions and reassignments (which, granted, doesn't really effect the number of church salespeople out working in the field).


If you reduced the average duration of a mission to a little over a year, that would make 1150 calls per week consistent with 67,000 total. I don’t think we have evidence of that happening.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:16 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
I think IHAQ is right. Assume 70K missionaries. How many of those would come home in a year? Half. That’s 35K. 1150 calls per week would result in about 60K new missionaries. The total would increase unti it reached 120K. Half would come home in a year, which is 60K. Half would go out — 60K. Equilibrium.

The 1150 cannot be a weekly average.


When trying to extrapolate some type of number from the "weekly calls" figure, don't forget that a significant percentage of those are women who only serve for 18 months.

This article from 2014 says:

Quote:
About 64 percent of the church's full-time missionaries are young adult men, 28 percent are women and 8 percent are senior missionaries.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:19 pm 
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out of curiosity, which probably does not pique many other people's interest, I took the percent of members who were serving missions back when I came home from my mission (1997) and multiplied it by the number of members today (16M). that percentage is .56% of the Church were full time proselyting missionaries in 1997.

The result was 89,816. So if youngsters went on missions at the same rate they did 20 years ago, we'd see more than 20,000 missionaries than we do today.

You will recall the raising the bar campaign from years ago which obviously caused the missionary force to take a dip. But I will note the growth rate of the Church has sunk over the past 20 years. In 1997 the growth rate was a healthy 3.91% 2016 saw it drop to 1.59% for 2016.

Then again I peaked back to when my dad went on his mission in 1962. The growth rate was up near 8%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Churc ... ip_history


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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:21 pm 
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Ah, thanks Cinepro. I’d spaced that fact. Still doesn’t make the numbers add up, but gets them closer.

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 Post subject: Re: Missionary Numbers Drop Over 5% From Last Year
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:31 pm 
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Stem wrote:
out of curiosity, which probably does not pique many other people's interest, I took the percent of members who were serving missions back when I came home from my mission (1997) and multiplied it by the number of members today (16M). that percentage is .56% of the Church were full time proselyting missionaries in 1997.

The result was 89,816. So if youngsters went on missions at the same rate they did 20 years ago, we'd see more than 20,000 missionaries than we do today.

You will recall the raising the bar campaign from years ago which obviously caused the missionary force to take a dip. But I will note the growth rate of the Church has sunk over the past 20 years. In 1997 the growth rate was a healthy 3.91% 2016 saw it drop to 1.59% for 2016.

Then again I peaked back to when my dad went on his mission in 1962. The growth rate was up near 8%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Churc ... ip_history


Interesting, but I’m not sure you don’t have to account for any changes in age distribution within the church. In other words, has the percentage of young people changed.

Something else to look at is service missionaries. My understanding is that some young folks who might not be able to serve full-time missions are allowed to do service missions instead. I think it’s a fairly recent trend. If so, it’s certainly possible that some of the men and women who would have served proselyting missions a decade ago now are assigned service missions. That would lower the expected total of missionaries.

ETA: https://www.LDS.org/callings/missionary ... /?lang=eng

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